2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE ODDS: BERNIE SANDERS LEADS THE FIELD HEADING INTO SUPER TUESDAY
After taking Iowa, New Hamphire and Nevada, Bernie Sanders is now the odds-on betting favorite to become the Democratic nominee to face Donald Trump in November's U.S. presidential election.
Despite having +500 odds to win the Democratic nomination last summer, Sanders is currently leading all Democrat presidential candidates at -150, according to Bet365, one of the top online sportsbooks in the world.
Former Vice President, Joe Biden had the best odds last summer but has tumbled down the board to fourth place at +800. That said, there's still a long way to go until a Democratic nominee is confirmed and several candidates, including Biden, are still very much in the mix as underdogs.
Here are the current betting odds to win the Democratic nomination and our predictions and best value bets as we head towards Super Tuesday on March 3 when delegates from 15 states, including California and Texas, will have their votes counted.
THE FAVORITES
Bernie Sanders -150
When Sanders was at +500 he had great value, but at -150 I'm a bit wary. Yes, Sanders has swept Iowa, New Hamphsire and Nevada but there's still plenty of time for his campaign to get derailed. While he has support from voters across demographic lines, he also has plenty of detractors within his own party. Many within the Democratic party don't consider Sanders a true Democrat since he has run as an independant in the past and his condemnation of the Democratic establishment hasn't won him many allies.
Add in questions about his health and criticisms of his more extreme socialist ideas, and there's reason to see an upset on the horizon. There's a good chance that the moderates within the party will rally behind any one of the other nominees should they emerge as a leader.
Michael Bloomberg +300
The former mayor of New York has been under attack for a variety of reasons: his past as a Republican, accusations of trying to buy the presidency, misogynistic comments and his support for the controversial "Stop and Frisk" practice. But as the Wu-Tang Clan once said, "cash rules everything around me" and the 77-year-old billionaire has plenty of that.
Bloomberg has chosen to skip the first four ballots while focusing on bigger states like California that will vote on Super Tuesday. But if Nevada is any indication, he will get absolutely massacred in debates. Bloomberg certainly increased his profile by spending more than $100 million in campaign advertising in just one month, but the WWE style gang-up on him by the other candidates in the recent debate showed that his electability is a major concern. I'm not touching Bloomberg at +300.
LIVE UNDERDOGS
Elizabeth Warren +4,000
Warren is extremely underrated with these odds. The U.S. senator from Massachusetts is a former professor at Harvard with plenty of political acumen and with the fall of Biden, she may represent a candidate that the entire base can rally behind.
Warren is progressive with her policies on education, health care, climate change and economics, and she doesn't have the glaring weaknesses of others. She’s more pragmatic than Sanders, a better orator than Joe Biden, more experienced than Pete Buttigieg, and more likeable than Bloomberg.
While there have been on-going questions of electability and whether or not she could go toe-to-toe with Trump in a presidential election, her brutal takedown of Bloomberg on the national stage in Nevada proved that she has a fighter's mentality.
Let's be honest, it's not going to be Hillary Clinton this time around and for the 2016 candidate to have far better odds than Warren is absolutely ludicrous. Warren definitely has major value at +4,000.
Joe Biden +800
Don't count out the former leading candidate at +800. Biden has had his share of gaffes on the campaign trail, from challenging a voter to a push-up contest and poking another in the chest, to his recent claims of being arrested in South Africa while trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison in the 70s.
That said, Biden still represents a moderate politician with loads of political experience and support from both sides of the aisle. Although he had extremely disappointing results in Iowa and New Hampshire, his second-place finish in Nevada showed promise. Biden is expected to do well in South Carolina where strong support from African-American voters has given him a lead in the polls. A win there could propel him back into the spotlight with Super Tuesday on the horizon.
LONG SHOTS
At this stage in the game, even considering the fringe candidates is unwise. Safely rule out Clinton, Michelle Obama, and Tulsi Gabbard unless you feel like just giving your money away. Billionaire Tom Steyer may as well be out after terrible performances in the first three states despite spending more than $15 million on ads in Nevada alone. Steyer barely has any name recognition and that combined with a lack of political experience spells doom for his campaign.
Even though Amy Klobuchar (+8,000) is still a factor it will be a steep uphill climb. The Minnesota Senator is a moderate with a history of doing well in rural areas but she polls poorly with younger voters and voters of color. Not knowing the name of the Mexican president in a recent interview didn't help and introducing herself by her fourth-grade Spanish name "Elena" to a group of largely Hispanic voters in Nevada was just as cringey as it sounds.
ODDS TO WIN 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, they will be an underdog when they face Donald Trump in the US Presidential Election. Choosing the Democrats as the winning party currently pays out at +135.
