Down 2 Games to 1, Bucks Hope to Even Series in NBA Finals Game 4 Wednesday Night in Milwaukee
After Milwaukee rebounded from an 0-2 deficit in a big way in Game 3, it appears that we now have an exciting championship series that could go 6 or perhaps even a full 7 games.
Indeed, the NBA Finals resumes on Wednesday evening with the Suns and Bucks set to square off for Game 4 in Milwaukee. Tip off is at at 8 pm CST.
The Bucks hope their newfound momentum continues. They bounced back at home after a pair of road losses with a decisive 20-point win on Sunday night. So far, all the home teams have won and covered, and pretty easily. Game 4 projects this to continue as Milwaukee is listed as a -4.5-point favorite over Phoenix which is the identical pointspread in its previous victory.
The O/U total is set at 220.5 – which is a slight decline from the 222 in the previous game. Games 1 and 2 were listed at about 219.
Here are the latest numbers at SPREADS.CA:
The Bucks appear to be a totally different team when playing big games at home versus on the road. While Milwaukee certainly struggles as a visitor, they have to feel confident about their prospects of evening-up the series in the next matchup. Milwaukee is now 8-1 in the playoffs inside their home building. The Bucks also come off an effort in which their trio of stars combined for an 80-point effort on 55 percent shooting from Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday.
One minor surprise was that Game 3 went UNDER, largely due to Phoenix shooting taking the night off with a lame 100-point output. Still, the total missed by just a few points. Even with that UNDER, six out of the last seven meetings between Milwaukee and Phoenix have gone OVER the number set for Wednesday’s matchup (220.5) – with the first three games of this series averaging 223 points scored per contest.
Excuse the pun, but it's hard to buck the recent trends here towards the home team and the OVER. The first three matchups of this series were separated by an average margin of 14 points – meaning, they haven't been competitive down the stretch. Milwaukee has a very good chance to even things up with another win and send this NBA championship back to the desert knotted up even at two games apiece. Laying -4.5 seems very reasonable given the recent history.
Prediction: Don't jump in front of the moving train. This is no time to be a contrarian, especially since there's no apparent betting value in doing so. Bet Milwaukee to cover -4 and also look for the total to exceed 220.5.
Final Score Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks 119, Phoenix Suns 111