2021 NFL Weekly Picks: #3
Betting on the Tennessee Titans to defeat Indianapolis Colts anchors several wagers this week
The 2021 regular season continues to be off to a good start. Last week resulted in 3 wins and 2 losses, increasing the season winning percentage to 66 percent success on 19 total bets.
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2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD
12 Wins — 6 Losses — 1 Push
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,950.
Best Bets: 1 — 1 — 0 (- $ 0.)
Last Week’s Results: – $ 70.
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Here's the lines according to SPREADS.CA
WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
(all games are Sunday daytime unless otherwise noted):
MONEYLINE: TEN -255 (Risking $990 to win $388)
It appears the Titans’ slow start to the season ended abruptly in the second half at Seattle last week where the underdogs overcame a 15-point deficit in pulling off a road upset. I see that momentum carrying over here this week versus a division rival, and presumptively the only team in the division that poses a threat. Going up 2 games in the AFC South race might end it early. Titans should be eager to avenge a horrible home performance in the season opener. The Titans’ offense isn’t the issue, which should score points no matter who they play. So far, it’s been the Titans’ weak defense that has been the problem — but can the Colts exploit those weaknesses? I don’t think so. The Colts were outplayed in both home games (admittedly versus two good teams) and now face just as solid an opponent. However, Indy’s QB situation is becoming shakier by the minute as brittle Carson Wentz is proving to be a contract dragger. He’s certainly injury-prone and from what’s seen over the course of his 3+ season in the league, Wentz simply lacks the leadership necessary to step into the class of QBs he was thought to be at one time. Reportedly, Wentz will start this week despite two bad ankles (that’s in the injury report, folks). That could also mean Jacob Eason sees playing time, whose pro-playing career consists of 2/5 completions for 25 yards and an interception. I’m not sure which is worse for the Colts — Wentz on two bad ankles, or the inexperienced backup with a QB rating of 16.3. It’s hard to see how the Titans lose the game, especially if the offense is back in synch. Titans rank #3 in rushing offense and should pad some numbers here. I feel confident laying -255 on the moneyline here, as Tennessee appears to have definite advantages just about everywhere. I’ve also bet them on the game line at -5.5 and on various teasers.
TEASER–ARZ -1 / BUFF -2 (Risking $600 to win $500)
Here’s the Wong teaser play, taking two definitive favorites of more than a TD and teasing them down to below a FG. Arizona is an easy choice to get the win, even on the road at Jacksonville, which has yet to show they’re an NFL-calibre team. Jaguars have underperformed to market expectations at 0-2 ATS and have been outscored 60-34. Cardinals, assuming they do not overlook this weak foe, should be able to name the score in this game. Note Arizona has clicked in both games, so far, especially in the passing game. Facing the #29 defense this week, they should roll up yards and points. As the other teaser selection — Buffalo is a little chancier as a pick since Washington comes in with extra rest. However, Buffalo simply mauled Miami last week (35-0) and I expect the Bills to be able to get the win at home. These are the games Super Bowl-caliber teams win with relative ease, and Buffalo certainly fits into that class. I’d be somewhat wary of Washington with an above-average defense, but they were exposed last week allowing the pathetic Giants offense to score 29. The Bills should be able to put up at least as many points.
TEASER–TEN +.5 / KC -.5 (Risking $300 to win $250)
See my previous comments about Tennessee, which gets teased to plus-half point. I also like Kansas City coming off a loss with the added motivation. This is usually money for Andy Reid, who boasts one of the best records in NFL history in this situation. Typically, I would not lay a TD in a division rivalry game, and I’m not eager to do so here as a game bet. Yet, I’ll fade the Chargers on the road here who should be embarrassed about only scoring 17 at home versus a very marginal Dallas defense last week. The offense didn’t look good the first week at Washington, either. Perhaps the Chargers will be a playoff contender as the season progresses, but this looks to be a very bad spot for them. I’ll tease Kansas City at home coming off a loss with a team that looks healthy and should be motivated to get the win.
TEASER–TEN +.5 / BAL -1.5 (Risking $300 to win $250)
See my previous comments about Tennessee, which gets teased to plus-half point. As the other part of the teaser, the Ravens should be able to roll over Detroit’s horrendously bad defense, even coming off a huge home win. I’m more comfortable teasing the fave down from -7.5 to -1.5 here. The Lions can be a Jeckl-Hyde offense at times, and Goff played well in flashes, but they now face a real test versus Baltimore, which had two really tough opponents the first two games (Raiders in home opener and Kansas City). This is a huge step down in class for the Ravens’ defense which is capable of playing better than they’ve shown. The injury situation should also be better this week for Baltimore. The Lions also come in with less a day less of preparation after playing a road game on MNF.
GAME SIDE: TENN -5.5 (Risking $550 to win $500)
See my previous comments about Tennessee, which gets teased to plus-half point.
GAME SIDE: DAL -4 (Risking $345 to win $300)
I got a bad number, it seems as line has dropped to -3.5 in some places. I’ll go ahead and grade this at the number I bet, which was placed last Sunday night. The Cowboys’ passing offense appears solid and they should rack up yards and points versus Philadelphia. In a MNF home game, look for Dallas to make a statement they’re the class of the NFC East with a victory. I don’t place much stock in the Eagles’ win in Atlanta in Week 1, given the Falcons’ defense is atrocious. Dallas should win here by at least a touchdown, with the duel running and passing threat. Cowboys have won three straight at home in this series.
TEAM TOTAL: Green Bay Over 21.5 (Risking $270 to win $200)
I see a possible shootout here, with the Packers back on the road after Aaron Rodgers returned to form with a 35-point outburst. There’s no way Green Bay doesn’t devise a similar game plan with a more pass-heavy attack. Even though Packers ran the ball well versus Detroit last week, that’s not likely to be as easy versus 49ers. These are both OVER teams — last season, 13 of Green Bay’s 18 games had a combined total of more than 50 points scored. The 49ers and the Packers combined to average 5.3 more points per game a season ago than the total of 50 set for this game. I’d have this number at least 23 or more.
THIS WEEK’S FINAL BETS (Lay amount/win amount):
MONEYLINE: TEN -255 (Risking $990 to win $388)
TEASER–ARZ -1 / BUFF -2 (Risking $600 to win $500)
TEASER–TEN +.5 / KC -.5 (Risking $300 to win $250)
TEASER–TEN +.5 / BAL -1.5 (Risking $300 to win $250)
GAME SIDE: TENN -5.5 (Risking $550 to win $500)
GAME SIDE: DAL -4 (Risking $345 to win $300)
TEAM TOTAL: Green Bay Over 21.5 (Risking $270 to win $200)
= 8 wagers.
