2021 Regular Season Analytics for All Major League Baseball Teams (Over/Under Results)

Baseball Apr 22, 2021

The 2021 Major League Baseball season is barely three-weeks old.  But we already know a lot.  Baseball bettors now have some meaningful data to examine which should help up make some winning picks in the days, weeks, and (hopefully) months to come.

On the previous article, we also looked into moneyline results for all teams.  

Read the article here:

2021 Regular Season Analytics for All Major League Baseball Teams

Now, it's time to look at baseball totals and see if there's anything to the early trends.  Fortunately, many websites exist which provide reliable analytics.  Here's the latest data from a site called EV Analytics:

2021 MLB TOTALS RESULTS (through 21 Apr.)

Here are a five major takeaways.  These numbers stand out and are clear indications that these teams have been outliers when it comes to over/under wagering, so far.  However, also keep in mind we are only three weeks into the season.  Results could (and in many cases – will) change significantly:

(1)  The Tampa Bay Rays have been the best OVER team in the majors this season.  After 18 completed games, the Rays are going OVER exactly twice as often as they go UNDER.  Tampa Bay is 12-6 to the OVER in 2021, which makes them the darling of fans and bettors who love offense.  Betting the Rays to go OVER the total in every game this season would have netted a +27 percent gain.  That high percentages will not continue, of course, but oddsmakers and the public have been very slow to react to Tampa Bay being a solid OVER bet.

(2)  The Cincinnati Reds are up there atop the OVER teams, as well. The Reds roared out of a great start, but have since cooled off and are now fading.  But that still makes them a strong OVER team.  Hitting has been solid (they led the majors in hitting a week ago), but the pitching staff is imploding, which means they also surrender many runs.  Hence, the Reds have been an OVER-bettors best friend.  Cincinnati is 10-5 to the OVER so far (66 percent) and +26.6 percent on winnings.

(3)  The Toronto Blue Jays have been a killer UNDER team.  Nobody expected much from the Blue Jays in 2021.  And, those forecasts have proven to be accurate, so far.  They're 8-10 and perhaps/maybe/possibly the third best team in the AL East.  A .500 finish might be an major accomplishment.  But Toronto's pitching staff has been hurling fire.  They rank as the best in the American League right now, and fifth in the majors.  No surprise then, they've gone UNDER in 12 of 17 games.  Betting all the Blue Jays' games UNDER would have netted +34.2 percent in profits.

(4)  The San Francisco Giants are a super UNDER team.  The Giants have the terrible misfortune of playing in the NL West, which is a division stacked with great pitching.  They rank fourth in the majors as a pitching staff and are now 11-7 straight-up, which is good for second-place behind the mighty Dodgers.  But the real money appears to be available betting San Francisco to slide UNDER the betting total.  They're now 12-5 to the UNDER.

(5)  The Los Angeles Dodgers are a strong UNDER team.  This is no surprise to anyone who's a baseball fan.  The Dodgers can boast having the best pitching staff in MLB, and they play home games in a park known for great pitching.  So, the Dodgers falling UNDER most betting totals is to be expected.  However, let's look more closely at these numbers.  LA fields the second-best pitching team in baseball (statistically speaking) and has gone UNDER the total 12 times, and only gone OVER 6 times.  This makes them +26.6 percent as an OVER wager in all their games.  Parlaying the Dodgers to win with the UNDER in has been like printing money, so far.  

UPDATE:  Following Wednesay's MLB results, the Colorado Rockies are now ranked as a yet another outstanding UNDER bet.  Colorado is now 5-12 to the UNDER, which is contrary to this team's reputation as a producer of many high-scoring games.