The 2021 Major League Baseball season is only three-weeks old, but we already have meaningful data to examine which may help up make some winning wagers in the days and weeks to come.
We've previously looked at NHL and NBA numbers. Read those previous articles here:
Now, it's time to look more closely at baseball.
Many websites exists which provide reliable analytics. Here's the latest data from a site called EV Analytics:
2021 MLB MONEYLINE RESULTS (through 20 Apr.)
Here are a few main takeaways, keeping in mind these are only three weeks into the season, and results could change significantly:
(1) Biggest surprise – the Seattle Mariners are the best return-on-investment team in the entire majors season. Betting on the M's in every game produced the biggest win of any team. Seattle is 11-7 and in first-place in the AL West, which is a shock given that many analysts predicted Seattle would finish in last place. The season is still early, but the Mariners have been a huge moneymaker for their backers. The M's have generated a whopping +37.5 percent return-in-investment so far in 2021. Many bettors haven't caught on to this yet, since Seattle has been undersogs in 16 of 18 games this season!
(2) The San Francisco Giants are the best return-on-investment among all teams in the National League this season. Betting on the Giants every game has been a giant win for baseball bettors. San Francisco is a surprising 11-6 and in second place behind the red hot LA Dodgers. However, the Giants have actually netted more in profits with a nearly +27 percent return.
(3) The Los Angeles Dodgers are an absolute beast – and a solid bet despite being favored in most of their games. Usually, betting on popular favorites like the Dodgers in most games is a sure-fire way to lose money. These teams are simply priced too high, and they lose money in the long run. Covering moneylines that often exceed -150 and -200 is simply too much to bear, and popular teams become known as "sucker" plays. Not so with the super Dodgers. The defending world champions own the best record in baseball at 14-4, are almost certain to win the NL West, and – the biggest surprise of all – they've returned nearly +18 percent in profits to their backers overall. It's inconceivable this trend will continue, especially at these inflated result percentages, but who wants to jump in front of a train and bet against the Dodgers right now? Not me!
(4) The Colorado Rockies are the worst return-on-investment team this season. Betting on the Rockies every game has been rocky result. Colorado produced the worst losses of any team in the majors. The Rockies are 5-12, and have netted a staggering -38.8 percent in losses overall.
(5) The Oakland Athletics have been the biggest turnaround team this young season and are now a very good bet (at least, right now). Some bettors totally gave up on the Athletics during the first week of the season. Oakland was playing at home and lost thier first six games of the season (0-6!) by and average margin of 5 runs per game. Oakland was a complete disaster. Since then, however, the A's have been on a tear. They've won 11 of 12 games and have generated +22 percent in profits overall, after being stuck deep in the hole during the first part of the season. This is a remarkable turnaround, and perhaps a sign that Oakland is capable of being a darhorse in the AL.