2022 NFL Analysis and Picks (Week 7)
We hope you enjoy the weekly write-ups here at Poinstpreads.ca. Continuing with this week’s analysis and predictions, last week I ended up with another solid effort with 10 wins and 4 losses. The posted record here is a very solid 51-27. Please show us a better FREE picks record on the Internet.
2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD
51 Wins
27 Losses
0 Pushes
Note: All lines are based on numbers that were available Saturday at SPREADS.CA. Some odds may have since changed.
ALL LINES ARE BASED ON WHAT'S AVAILABLE AT SPREADS.CA. ALSO NOTE THE BONUSES, BOOSTED BETS, AND OTHER ATTRACTIONS AT SPREADS.CA
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -7
O/U: 49
Moneyline: Lions +240 / Cowboys -300
Analysis: All the talk this week has been on the anticipated return of QB Dak Prescott coming back after an injury. I won’t bore everyone with the exhaustive details because most of us are already sick of it. What’s actually of interest to us bettors is — after missing five games will Prescott be rusty? Typically, that would be the main concern for any QB, which isn’t really as much of a concern in this situation because Dallas plays the woeful 1-4 Lions, who rank 30th in defence. Counting on Detroit’s defence to stop anybody is like giving Hershel Walker responsibility for birth control. Not smart. With Prescott back under center, it will be interesting to see how much more gets added to the playbook that produced the #1 offense in the league (yardage-wise) last season. Dallas has admittedly been running a downscaled offensive scheme the last 5 games, in part because of backup Rush and their WR injuries. Now that Prescott has returned and his receivers are back healthy again, we should expect them to test a very vulnerable Lions’ secondary. Meanwhile, Detroit comes into Texas off a bye. They’re 9-1 off byes in the last ten seasons, which might (not) be relevant. What’s relevant is the fact that Detroit loses games, yet often covers the spread. Under coach Dan Campbell, the Lions are 4-17-1 SU, and also 14-8 ATS, one of the best marks in the NFL during that span. The Lions played a horrible game at New England in their last effort, basically a no-show. I think they’ll do better this time around, especially since the Lions’ offense ranks #2 in the NFL. Before getting shutout 29-0 in that game, Detroit had averaged 35 PPG. Also of note–Detroit’s coach can be a loose canon, at times. Last week, he went for it on six 4th-down attempts – failing to convert even once, and four of those attempts were within FG range. This tells us the Lions are a gambling, go-for-it team that is likely to cash more OVERs than UNDERs, especially given a bad defence. For these reasons, I’d like to play the OVER in this game. However, the total went up from 47 to 49 once Prescott was announced as the starter. So, I’m going to pass on making any bets for now.
My Pick: No Action
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New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jags -2.5
O/U: 43
Moneylines: Giants +125 / Jags -150
Analysis: Still no respect for the Giants, I see. A 5-1 team is an underdog to Jacksonville, which is sort of like clicking on Yelp and seeing an Italian restaurant with fewer stars than Olive Garden. I totally get the widespread lingering doubts about the “ugly winning” Giants, because I share them. What I do not get is the undeserved love from oddsmakers here for the Jaguars. Since whipping the Chargers a month ago, JAX has lost three straight games, including a dismal performance at home just two weeks ago vs. HOU that should go down as one of the most shameful displays of offense since, oh, just about every Iowa Hawkeyes game. Let’s also note the Jaguars have lost 18 (count’em — EIGHTEEN!) straight games versus NFC opponents. Since mid-2018, they’re 0-18 against NFC teams and 2-16 against the spread in those games. Ouch! Of course, these aren’t the same feral cats as in years past. No doubt, JAX is better now. But apparently, so too are the Giants. The G-Men have broken the 20-point mark in three straight, including a pair of shocking upsets versus the favoured Packers and Ravens. Agreed, I’m not so sure the Giants won last week so much as the Ravens blew the lead and lost. Nonetheless, come-from-behind wins like that can impact a team and begin to spark actual improvement. As tempting as the Giants are as a dog, I’m skipping them as a pick and instead playing the total. Here’s why: NYG rely heavily on their running game, but this week they face one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run. The Jags surrender just 89 YPG, ranking third in the NFL. If the Jaguars stop the run, that places the game in Daniel Jones’ hands, and that’s not a place I want to be with my money. NYG ranks a horrid 30th in the league in passing offense. Hence, we should expect NYG to struggle at scoring points. As for defence, Giants’ opponents have stayed under the team total (points) in five of six games. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in NYG games this season. The Jags’ offense is tougher to predict. However, the O/U of 43 does give us some margin for error, so I’ll play the UNDER. (Note: At 42.5, this is a no-bet — you must get 43).
The Pick: NY Giants/ Jacksonville UNDER 43
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -2
O/U: 42.5
Moneylines: Colts +120 / Titans -145
Analysis: The AFC South race has turned into the NFL’s equivalent of every Adam Sandler movie ever made. You just stare at what’s going on and wonder who’s responsible for this travesty. This week, we have the two unimpressive division leaders facing off in Nashville for the battle to be king of the shitpile. The Titans (3-2 SU, and coming off a bye) take on the Colts (3-2-1 SU, and coming off a razor-thin win vs. JAX). Let’s start with the little Titans. This might be the toughest team in the NFL to figure out right now. They’ve won three games so far, despite the fact they haven’t scored a single point in the 4th quarter all season long. In five games, Tennesse still has ZERO 4th-quarter points. How is this even possible? That’s like going through a whole month without brushing your teeth. I can’t even imagine it. Looking at the Titans’ wins makes you want to vomit. 2-point win versus the 1-4 Raiders. 4-point win versus the Commanders. 7-point win versus these same Colts in Week 4. Blllllaaaaaaaaaaaaggggggghhhhhhhh. The Colts look just as bad, despite their winning record. After getting off to a dreadful start (tie at HOU, then shut out 24-0 by JAX), the Colts have quietly won 3 of 4, with the lone blemish on their previous month being the home loss to TEN. The Colts lost that first game for two reasons — because QB Matt Ryan turned the ball over three times and because they couldn’t stop RB Derrick Henry. I don’t see much that’s changed coming into Week 7, other than the Titans being a bit more rested and ready. Tennessee is built on a pounding running game and solid defence. Other than the wipeout against the Bills, Tennessee has done what they’ve needed to win. Even that opening game loss to the 5-1 Giants doesn’t look so bad anymore. So, the Titans appear to have a slight edge in overall consistency and are laying a reasonable number of points. As for the total, the UNDER looks compelling. The total has gone UNDER in each of the last five Indianapolis road games, and in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 11 games overall. Tennessee’s UNDER trend is also worth considering, as the O/U has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee’s last 7 home games. I won’t be playing the first half because I shy away from laying points, but for those so inclined, TEN has been a dominant team early while IND has been quite the opposite. The Colts have been outscored 113-60 in the first three quarters this season. Meanwhile, the Titans have outscored opponents 82-47 in the first half. It’s tempting to lay -1 here, but I’ll pass on that and simply wager on the full game line.
The Pick: Tennessee -2
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Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6.5
O/U: 47
Moneylines: Falcons +230 / Bengals -285
Analysis: Wow. Another slap in the face to the Falcons who are a perfect 6-0 this season against the spread. I recall that we bet them in five of those games. Should we keep riding the wave? Both teams are 3-3, yet one of those .500 records is something of a disappointment (Cincy) while the other is a surprise (Atlanta). Most preseason predictions had the Falcons ranked as one of the worst teams in the league. Arthur Smith was listed among the coaches first expected to be fired. Yet, Atlanta has been fiercely competitive in every game and is coming off an ass-kicking versus SFO. My wager on the Falcons isn’t just based on the ATS records of these teams. Check out the offensive lines — CIN ranks among the worst in the NFL in sacks allowed, while dead last in sacks for the defence (just 1.5 per game). If QB Marcus Mariota is given time, this should be another respectable outing for the Falcons’ offense, which ranks as mediocre but also is opportunistic given their opportunities. The Falcons’ 25 PPG ranks 8th. As for Cincy’s defence let’s look at the QBs they’ve faced, so far: Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Lamar Jackson. Nonetheless, the Falcons may not need to rely on Mariota’s arm. Atlanta ranks as the third-best running team in the NFL, averaging 165 YPG. By contrast, the Bengals are pretty much an all-passing team, averaging a dreadful 89 YPG rushing, ranking #27th. It all comes down to if you believe QB Joe Burrow gets time to throw and delivers with a big day through the air. I’m wary of the danger Cincy’s offense poses when they’re hitting on all cylinders. But I do think the Falcons have enough of a rushing attack to keep the Bengals on the sidelines and stay within the margin of +6.5 points. I’ll also play OVER the Falcons team total, which is 20.5 points. Even if I’m wrong and the Bengals light up the scoreboard, that could help the Falcons backdoor some points and not only get a late cover but also push their scoring projection over the number.
The Pick: Atlanta +6.5 / Atlanta Team Total OVER 20.5
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
O/U: 46.5
Moneylines: Browns +210 / Ravens -275
Analysis: Could Ravens QB Lamar Jackson have played a worse 2 minutes than the meltdown we saw last week? For all of his talents, Jackson sure does make some monumental blunders at the worst possible times. He’s got no excuses at this point in his career and needs to protect the ball better. Baltimore is just 3-3, but they’ve also played the NFL’s toughest schedule as measured by the W-L record of opponents, which stands at 20 wins and 10 losses. Now, the Ravens line up at home for a division game against the 2-4 Browns, which looks like the most outclassed opponent they’ve faced so far. Despite the Ravens’ pedestrian .500 record, they could very well be a perfect 6-0 if not for a few tough breaks. All three losses were in the last minute and featured brutal turnovers. On the other sideline, Cleveland has lost three straight. Credit the Browns for boasting the NFL’s #1 rushing attack, led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. However, the Ravens have an above-average run defence, ranking 7th in the NFL. If Cleveland can’t run the ball, they’ll lose. Normally, in a division rivalry with an inconsistent favourite, I’d be all over the underdog and take the points. But Baltimore is the better team and coming off a loss all the stars line up for a solid effort by the home favourite here. The Browns don’t rebound well — they’re just 9-15-2 ATS in the last 26 games coming off a loss. QB Jacoby Brissett won’t win any MVP awards either — he’s 16-27 as an NFL starter. Even with his turnovers, Lamar Jackson is 41-18 as an NFL starter. What keeps me off the Ravens is a couple of glaring stats — Ravens are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home favourite and 5-11 ATS in the last 16 division home games. I want to bet on Baltimore but can’t do it. So, let’s compromise here and tease the Ravens down to minus a half point. While covering is uncertain, Baltimore should at least win the game.
The Pick: TEASER: Baltimore -.5 (half point) / New England -2
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Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Spread: Packers -4.5
O/U: 41.5
Moneyline: Packers -225 / Commanders +180
Analysis: How far and deep the once mighty have fallen. Green Bay has looked like smelly garbage during much of this season, losing two straight games to both New York teams. In two other games, the offense was pathetic (MIN and TB). yet, they’re favoured on the road this week, which just goes to show how low Washington is regarded by betting markets. The Commanders, who squeaked out an ugly 12-7 win vs. the lowly Bears last Thursday night, improved to 2-4 SU. Maybe the extra rest and prep time helps a little bit here. For the Packers to cover, the once-powerhouse offense simply must play better this week, yet I see little that suggests that will happen. It’s become obvious Aaron Rodgers isn’t the MVP-calibre QB of years past without a solid supporting cast around him. His OL is also not giving protection (#22nd in sacks allowed). WR Randall Cobb, Rodgers’ favourite target since the departure of D. Adams, is out for multiple weeks with an ankle injury, and high-draft pick Christian Watson is still in street clothes. The Packers’ defence has been equally mediocre, ranking 20th in yards allowed. Another intangible in this matchup could be Green Bay’s longtime struggles with special teams. It’s hard to weigh factors like punt blocking and returns, but the Packers have been dreadful for quite a while in this category. A game like this could come down to a missed block or return for a TD. As for Washington, this is a moldy bologna sandwich of a team to look at and a frightening spectacle to bet money on — often painfully uninspired, and perpetually underperforming. Failed trade acquisition Carson Wentz won’t start this week due to injury, which could actually be a good thing. Backup QB Taylor Heinecke gets the start, who has checkered results when called upon in the last two seasons. Still, he can’t be any worse or less effective than Wentz has been. So, let’s roll the dice with a bet on the Commanders getting just a few too many points this week. Green Bay probably should be laying some chalk, perhaps even 3 points or so. Not -4.5. We catch wins on a few key numbers (3 and 4), which is just enough as a tipping point compelling me to bet on Washington.
The Pick: Washington +4.5
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Buccaneers -13
O/U: 39.5
Moneylines: Bucs -500 / Panthers +375
Analysis: Each NFL season, there’s always one team that becomes the league’s laughingstock. This year, that team is the Carolina Panthers. Their (former) head coach has already been shitcanned. The highly-acclaimed free agent QB signing (Mayfield) has tanked worse than a bad crypto deal. And the Panthers’ in-game sideline looks more confused than Kanye West speaking at a D.A.R. Convention. Carolina is surely an easy team to bash at the moment, with many valid reasons. Nonetheless, should the 3-3 Bucs really be favoured by 13 points on the road? Helllllllooooooo? Did anyone see Brady’s Bunch turn into Cindy with pigtails at Pittsburgh last week? Hell, when mighty Mitch Trubisky is outplaying your offense, you shouldn’t be giving points to anybody. You outta’ be wearing a mask and begging for forgiveness. There’s no way I’d ever lay this many points with an inconsistent offense like the Bucs playing back-to-back roadies. That’s the sucker bet of the year. Tampa Bay has also lost three of its last four games and is 0-4 ATS. Nonetheless, I can’t bet Carolina for the game since they appear to be in such turmoil right now. What may have some value for the home dog is taking a full touchdown in the first half. Keep in mind the Panthers’ defence isn’t all that bad statistically. This unit scored a TD last week and was tied with the Super Bowl champion Rams 10-10 nearing the end of the 3rd quarter. Since the defence seems to pose some resistance, I like Carolina to keep it close for a while. Tampa Bay has shown me nothing in their ability to explode out of the locker room. Perhaps they end up running away with the game in a rout. My best guess is, the game will be close for a time, which leads me to take +7 in the first half. I’ll need some help and hope the Buc’s problems, especially on offense, will continue.
The Pick: Carolina +7 (first half)
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New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Spread: Jets -1.5
O/U: 39
Moneylines: Jets -125 / Broncos +110
Analysis: This is one of those rare games where we can ignore most of the stats and ditch the power rankings and instead focus on the confidence levels and mental outlooks of both teams, and they couldn’t be more different right now. Other than the miserable Panthers, the Broncos look like the NFL’s most dysfunctional locker room. The Broncos have lost 3 straight games and average just 15 PPG. Denver has been the league’s absolute worst red zone team, scoring a touchdown just 20 percent of the time (by comparison, the 31st-ranked team -Seattle- has scored TDs in 33 percent of red zone opportunities). That’s an abomination. That said, let’s also give some mad credit to the Bronco’s defence which is the only reason this underachieving team with a moron for a head coach isn’t 0-6 right now. Denver ranks #3 in the NFL in yards allowed, less than 300 notches per game. This is a Super Bowl defence combined with a Div. 3 offense. These factors could play into yet another close and low-scoring game for the Broncos, which has become their forte in recent seasons. The 4-2 Jets are a totally different story. They’ve won three straight, each in impressive fashion by outscoring opponents 91-47. Beating the Packers, no wait — make that dominating the Packers in Green Bay — was a major statement game for the long-suffering Jets. I’m a little worried about another long road trip in a B2B spot, especially with a young team not quite used to this role as a winning team still in playoff contention in mid-season. That would typically keep me off the road team. But it’s also just been announced that QB Russell Wilson is definitely *out* for Denver this week with a hamstring injury. That leaves undrafted Brett Rypien under center for the Broncos, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass in two years. Does anyone like the chances of Nathanial Hackett coming up with an offensive game plan with Rypien slinging the ball? Some Denver bettors will rightfully point out that a shakeup is needed, and actually could be a short-term upgrade for Denver considering how bad this offense has played the first third of the season. Nonetheless, laying -1.5 points with a well-coached team and a QB on the rise looks way too easy given the vast disparity of mind states of both of these teams at the moment.
The Pick: NY Jets -1.5
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Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -6.5
O/U: 46
Moneylines: Texans +240 / Raiders -300
Analysis: Both teams have been struggling badly of late and come into this game following a bye week. So, which last-place team does that favour? I lean very slightly towards Houston, which is getting +6.5. The Texans have been a feisty team in the first three quarters but have faded badly late in games in their losses (and a tie). The big problem is — Houston’s offense is excruciatingly painful to watch, ranking #29 in the NFL. I’m not sure how they fix such ineptitude, even with the extra prep time. Moreover, the Raiders have been highly-competitive despite their 1-4 SU record and have lost all the heartbreakers. They lost to LAC by 5 points, ARZ in overtime, TEN by 2 points, and KC by 1 point in Kansas City, 30-29. That could be a recipe for a refocused effort against a weaker opponent and a breakout victory here. All these facts will keep me off Houston as a side wager, unless I can get the full +7. Instead of betting the side, instead, I see a solid UNDER here. Houston’s passing game is almost non-existent. But let’s also credit the Texans’ defence for holding 4 of 5 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They face a Raiders offense that’s likely to be without WRs Darren Waller and Mack Hollins, starters who are both questionable. Inexplicably, star WR Devante Adams is suiting up this Sunday (why the fuck hasn’t the NFL suspended him already!?!?!?). Adams should be sitting in a Kansas City jail cell right now for his blatant assault on a defenceless cameraman as he trotted off the field in their previous game. What a piece of shit. Look for Las Vegas to use the run with RB Josh Jacobs more this week, and dominate the time of possession battle. Long drives will eat the clock and Houston lacks the weapons on offense to do the same. Texans have only 8 TDs on 53 drives this season, including 19 three-and-outs — that’s horrendous. I’d have this total around the 42-43 range, so we’re getting a nice cushion at 46.
My Pick: Houston/Las Vegas UNDER 46
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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Chiefs -1
O/U: 49
Moneylines: Chiefs -160 / 49ers +135
Analysis: The big cloud over this game is San Francisco’s fragile injury situation. Six 49ers defensive starters were out by the time last week’s game ended at Atlanta. The Chiefs have way too much firepower on offense, while the 49ers have too many injuries on a banged-up defence to spur our betting confidence. Normally, the NFL’s best defence playing at home and getting points would be a wonderful live dog. They allow just 256 YPG, which is the best in the NFL. The Niners also pressure opposing QBs 34 percent of the time, which is among the tops in the league. But this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about, who has been effective under pressure. San Francisco’s stifling defence won’t get to feast on a mediocre immobile QB this week. Totally different challenge here. I do see the line has shifted on this game from KC -3 to KC -1, based (one presumes) on the RB Christian McCaffrey trade (yawn, wake me when he does something — he’s played just 10 games in the last two seasons, plagued by injury). It’s uncertain how much the former Panther will be on the field for this game, not to mention McCaffrey won’t have any practice time beforehand with his new team. Maybe the trade will work out, but it’s a complete non-factor in my estimation — and only gives Kansas City that much more line value laying a smaller number. San Francisco is coming off two long weeks on the East Coast, normally not something to mention. Yet, under coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are just 1-3 in games played at home after being in the Eastern time zone for two straight games, and that lone win was a struggle and non-cover. Meanwhile, Kansas City has won 13 straight games against NFC opponents. Coming off a home loss (which was no shame losing to Buffalo), the Chiefs should be even more motivated and won’t take this opponent lightly.
[Intangible Optional Wager if You Want to Get a Little Crazy: Betting SFO +1 in the first half and then KC -1 for the full game could be wise. Yes, that’s really the line for the first half, which (strangely) is also the game line. SFO is an excellent 1H team, outscoring opponents 79-33 in the opening two frames, then giving up more points in the 2H. It’s always good to get points in the 1H with a solid home team, but KC does often wear down the opposition as the game goes along. So, this is a rare spot for bettors when contradictory wagers can probably be justified.]
The Pick: Kansas City -1
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Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 50
Moneylines: Seahawks +205 / Chargers -255
Analysis: At 3-3, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s surprise teams this season. No one expected this. Head coach Pete Caroll won a Super Bowl and has been a terrific coach for a very long time. But what he’s done with the Seahawks, who on paper look like a Golden Corral buffet at a truckstop at the end of the nightshift, might be his most impressive work. He’s turned shit into a Chateaubriand. I mean, look at the Seahawks and their personnel. Geno Smith? Name one star player. I dare you. Nonetheless, Seattle’s offense is scoring 35 PPG in its last four outings, and the defence is coming off its best game of the season, holding the punchless Cardinals to just 9 points. Still, Seattle’s defence remains pretty much horrible, ranking #31 in the NFL. Only Detroit’s defence is worse. Seahawks gave up 27+ points in four of last five games. Three of the Seahawks’ last four games went OVER. Three of the Bolts’ last four games went OVER. Yes, this is a high total. What makes me pull the trigger on the OVER is the Chargers’ love for the pass. QB Justin Herbert aired it out 57 times last week (in a subpar effort). LAC struggled against a Top-3 defence (DEN) and now gets to feast on a Bottom-3 defence (SEA). I think that probably spells points for the Chargers. However, they can’t seem to stop anybody, either, actually surrendering 152 points while scoring only 141, despite a 4-2 record. Both offenses do have some injury issues, which dropped the total by a point from 51.5 down to 50.
The Pick: Seattle/LA Chargers OVER 50
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[SNF] Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -7
O/U: 44.5
Moneylines: Steelers +220 / Dolphins -275
Analysis: PENDING (check back later for updates)
The Pick: PENDING
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[MNF] Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (Mon.)
Spreads: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 39.5
Moneylines: Bears +280 / Patriots -350
Analysis: PENDING (check back later for updates)
The Pick: PENDING
