KC -3.5 and Total 57.5 .... where are those numbers headed?

NFL Jan 26, 2021

Super Bowl 55 Opening Odds - Chiefs favored over Buccaneers


– by Micah Roberts

Las Vegas ready for Super Bowl 55

It’s a dream Super Bowl 55 matchup featuring Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, a matchup that offers a little bit of intrigue for everyone to share opinions which makes for a tremendous betting event.

We have two weeks to wait for the game, but the talking of who will win began Sunday immediately after Brady beat the Packers at Lambeau Field to make his 10th Super Bowl.

The Buccaneers were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and they’ll be +3.5 against the defending champion Chiefs as well.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 57.5 with 45 minutes left in the Chiefs eventual 38-24 win over the Bills.

Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -3 -120 and quickly moved to -3.5. The South Point and MGM both opened -3.5.

“Mahomes against Brady is going to be huge,” Nevada BetMGM’s sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said.

“Handle has been up all season despite less occupancy so I don’t see why the trend wouldn’t continue for the biggest game of the season. It’s been weird because six-figure wagers are a common thing now. I used to remember them all because that size of a bet was unique, but now that it’s a regular thing, I lose count of how many we took some weeks.”

Mobile wagering with lots of automated options has helped most books achieve bigger numbers this NFL season.

It’s easier than ever for people to bet and bet again in 2021 staying home during a pandemic, so why not set a record to commemorate it.

The Nevada record for Super Bowl sportsbook handle was $158 million in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots and the highest win was $19.67 million in 2014 when the Seahawks thrashed the Broncos, 43-8.

I can tell you this, the soft spot for your Grandma will be 43-year-old Tom Brady, who just played in his 14th conference championship game.

He comes off seven straight wins while scoring 30-points or more in their last six.

He won all three playoff games on the road. They’ve got some serious momentum heading into Tampa.

Yes, the game is on their home field, the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field.

Chiefs get early action


Early money showed up on the Chiefs at -3 -120, but that was more about the number. Or was it?

BetMGM’s Jason Scott said they took $50K on the Chiefs -3.5 and $150K on the Chiefs money-line at -180 shortly after the line was posted.

Or maybe it’s just the “what we saw last” type of betting.

The Chiefs are back covering after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games, one of which was a Week 12 game at Tampa Bay they won 27-24 but didn’t cover -3.5. The Bucs have not lost since that meeting.

Super Bowl 55 Adjustments Coming?

Where will the line go, up or down?

Some say it will stay 3 or 3.5 the entire next two weeks.

Station Casinos sportsbook director is hoping for something different.

“I was praying for two-way action at 3.5 but I expect to see Bucs money take it down,” Jason McCormick said.

And then how long do you stay at 3, the most key number in the NFL, before jumping down to 2.5? The books don’t want to push on 3, but they also don’t want to get middle by going to 2.5.

A Black Sunday happened after the 1978 season with the Steelers and Cowboys in Super Bowl 13. Only a handful of books around in Nevada back then with low limits compared to now. A Black Sunday in 2021 would be devastating.

We’ll see how it all unfolds the next two weeks and I’ll report what I see and thoughts on where the number may be going.

My advice shortly after the number was posted Sunday is to take the Bucs +3.5 and money-line sooner than later if you like them and if you like the Chiefs wait for -2.5.

One thing I’ve noticed in recent Super Bowls is that public opinion completely flips sides from what was bet the first two or three days.

Sharp money doesn’t matter as much as the regular season and gets lost in all the public money piling up.


NFL Super Bowl LV: Bet Now, Bet Later

-- by Jason Logan

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 7—a default home game for the Bucs, who opened as Big Game underdogs.

But no matter the matchup, from preseason to regular season to Super Bowl, the sharpest NFL betting strategy is always to get the best of the number. We look at the opening spread and total and early line movements, giving you our best betting tips of the wagers to make now and the ones to make later.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Later

Never has a team played a Super Bowl on their own turf and despite that fact, the Buccaneers are giving a field goal to the “visiting” Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

Offshore operators posted odds on the potential Super Bowl matchup at halftime of the AFC Championship Game, actually dealing K.C. as low as -2.5 before a quick move to Kansas City -3. The vig shifted dramatically over the final two quarters of the Chiefs’ beatdown of the Buffalo Bills and the recency bias (people are going to react to what they saw last) pushed it even further, with some shops dealing Kansas City -3.5 (-105)/Tampa Bay +3.5 (-115) and others maxing the vig on Chiefs -3 (-125) to cling to the key number.

If you're on the home underdog Bucs, don’t buy it at a field goal: wait it out and get that half-point hook. In discussions with oddsmakers following Tampa Bay’s win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, Covers’ writer Patrick Everson was told home field in the Super Bowl could be worth between 0.5 and 1.5 points to the spread. The Bucs could do for some home cooking, after winning three straight playoff road games to get Tom Brady back to the Big Game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs (Over 57.5): Bet Now

The current Super Bowl LV total is sitting at 57.5 points—tied with Super Bowl LI for the highest Over/Under in Big Game history. That infamous game (which also featured Brady) needed overtime to get Over the number. This one probably won’t need any help and could sniff 60 points by the time Super Sunday rolls around.

Given that Tampa Bay has posted scores of 31, 30, and 31 points in those road postseason stops, bettors should feel pretty good about the Bucs sharing the scoring load in Super Bowl LV, especially since Kansas City looks like the weakest defense Tampa has faced so far in the tournament.

The Chiefs finally snapped out of their offensive slumber versus Buffalo, dropping 38 points on the Bills with a relentless big-play attack. Kansas City had been scuffing its feet on offense for more than a month but put up its second-highest point total of the season in the AFC title game—and looked just as dangerous as it did at its 2020 peak.

These teams clashed in Week 12, with Kansas City winning 27-24 (as 3.5-point road chalk) and playing Under the 56-point total. However, Brady and Bucs were mired in an offensive slump at the time and neither team was great in the red zone. There are plenty more points to be squeezed from the Chiefs and Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. If you’re leaning Over, bet that bad boy now before it breaks the all-time Over/Under record.