Here's a Great Rams-Packers Hedge Bet....

NFL Jan 16, 2021

It's rare for me to make a single post on an NFL game with picks, but I'll share this one because I think there's clearly value, with little downside and lots of upside to the wager combo.


This is something of a hedge.  I'll explain.  If LA Rams cover, the star RB will certainly get yardage, either on the ground or air, or both. Consider last week's gameplan where Cam Akers had 30 touches for 176 yards and a touchdown. 30 touches! These are modest player prop numbers given that the Rams offensive formula worked so well last week at Seattle. Add QB Goff's hand problems (he has serious problems throwing with accuracy), and it opens up the possibility Akers catches more balls. Regardless, the Rams want to get the ball into Akers's hands and keep the heat off Goff.

More stats: Akers has at least 22 receiving yards in four of his past five games. He also has at least three targets in three of his past four, solidifying his role as an option in the pass game. Over their last four games, the Packers have allowed an average of 7.4 yards per reception to RBs."

If Rams come to play and get the cover there's a strong correlation to big numbers of Akers.

However, I also see the Packers, who are rested and healthy, at home, and in cold weather, covering this number. That might even be better for Akers to break his rushing and passing yardage projections. Akers could get some garbage yardage in a blowout, which would play nicely into a freeroll situation. If Packers, who are the NFL's highest-scoring team at 31 PPG, reach that figure here, Akers might acrue even better stats. We often see the team that's trailing ending up with more yardage by the game's end.

So, this makes for a unique situation, especially with Rams QB limited in the passing game. I love this combo of wagers.