A Prop to Bet on NFL Monday Night Football

NFL Oct 23, 2022

Bill Belichick can make NFL history on Monday night if Patriots extend their winning streak against a struggling Bears team that has lost three in a row

[MNF] Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (Mon.)
Spreads.ca Line: Patriots -8
Spreads.ca O/U: 40.5
Spreads.ca Moneylines: Bears +285 / Patriots -360

Analysis: I’m already invested in this game since I took and touted New England on a teaser (READ YESTERDAY'S NFL REPORT HERE – the picks went 8-3).  The first leg of the teaser (Baltimore) won on Sunday, leaving the Patriots as a live ticket at -2 (teased down from -8).

I don’t normally cheerlead NFL coaches and players and wave pompoms, but Bill Belichick could make NFL history in this game if the Patriots extend their winning streak. He’s on trek for the second-most career wins, which is noteworthy from a betting perspective because this is the perfect national stage for the celebration — at home on MNF and playing George Halas’ old team, the Chicago Bears.

I do think that intangible must be factored in, and perhaps it’s even shaded the line a little upward a point or two for New England. I can’t argue with any of this.

The Bears have lost three in a row. The offense remains downright offensive. And the passing game stinks — just 869 yards overall in six games, which sounds like an Army-Navy game in the 1940s. To show you how bad this passing offense is, note that half the teams in the NFL have at least twice as many passing yards as the Bears. Chicago averages just 11 pass completions PER GAME! Let’s put the blame squarely where it belongs — not so much at QB Justin Fields, who is running for his life on just about every passing down — but mostly on an offensive line that gives up more sacks than any other team (24).

Also of note, look for Bears head coach Matt Eberflus to gamble in this game, and I don’t mean he’s betting the Patriots at -8. The frustrated Chicago coach promised the Bears would make “wholesale changes from top to bottom,” and everything, from play calling to personnel on both sides of the ball, was at stake this week. That tells me some weird shit might happen, and things like that often blow up in their faces — especially when they lack skilled players.

New England has won two straight games and done so in very impressive fashion despite starting a 3rd-string rookie QB. In fact, there’s some controversy now about Mac Jones starting again after Bailey Zappe played so well. For now, Jones is expected to get the nod.

As for adding to the picks (the teaser is already in action), I’m doing something unusual in this game, which is to bet a prop at plus-money. Here's the explanation:


If you like NWE -8 and lay -110 the better value is probably to bet NWE to win both halves. This means NWE must win the first half and the second half, as though they were two separate games. If NWE ties, or loses either, the wager loses.

Incredibly, this prop pays +135. Assuming NWE comes out and takes the early lead, I don’t think they take their foot off the gas. Belichick is notorious (glorious, if you bet on him) for running up scores, at times. This looks like the game he might do exactly that.

Assuming the Patriots have the lead at halftime, I don’t think they’ll let up in the second half with Belichick’s moment of glory in celebration. So now, you see why I included this tidbit into the write-up. That’s my prop bet on this game.

The Pick: PROP: New England to win both halves on the moneyline (+135)


PHOTO CREDIT:  (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer) AP