Are the Packers a Solid Underdog Bet at 20-1 to Win the 2021 Super Bowl?

NFL Jul 20, 2021

There's been a whirlwind of speculation surrounding the fortunes of the 2021 Green Bay Packers.  Their fate largely/entirely depends on where future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers ends up taking snaps.

If Rodgers is standing upright in the Packers' offensive backfield come the start of the regular season two months from now, their odds rocket up to among the favourites in the NFC.  But if the former Super Bowl winner ends up signing with another team, Green Bay's prospects decrease significantly.

Breaking news on Tuesday came that Rodgers had declined the Packers' offer that would have made him the highest-paid NFL quarterback.  In fact, the 2-year deal would have paid him more than Patrick Mahomes (Mahomes became the highest paid player in football last July when he signed a 10-year, $450 million deal with the Chiefs).  Basically, the Packers were willing to pay Rodgers more than $45 million per year to stay in Green Bay.


That's quite a development and bad news for Green Bay fans.  But it also might provide an excellent contrarian betting opportunity.

That's the basis of today's article and the following betting recommendation.

It appears the futures price on the Green Bay to win the next Super Bowl is based on the prospect Aaron Rodgers won't be a Packer.  Many sites have them in the 15-1 to 18-range.  Some sportsbook have the Packers off the board.

However, SPREADS.CA has the Packers listed at +2000 (or 20-1) odds to win the Super Bowl.  That looks like an excellent opportunity to jump on the value, and hope that Rodgers stays precisely where he's at.

No doubt, the Packers winning the Super Bowl is a longshot no matter who starts at QB.  But if this was any other year and Rodgers was certain to be the starting quarterback, Green Bay would absolutely probably be listed in the 8-1 to 10-1 range (recall last season's number when they were among the betting favourites). So, the 20-1 current price offers an incredible value based on what could be a public overreaction.

This observation was brought to light by NFL handicapper Andy Chitko.  He (correctly) pointed out to me in a conversation that if Rodgers hasn't signed by now with another team, his prospects for being in Green Bay another season are much better than the futures odds indicate.  And, with something to prove, look for one of the NFL's best quarterbacks over the past decade to put up some big numbers again in 2021.  Surely, if Rodgers is playing, the Packers can beat anyone.

Let's be clear.  The Packers do have some gaping holes, glaring voids, and major question marks.  This team could go either 6-11 or 11-6.  But other than Minnesota, they should be the only reasonable pick to win the mediocre NFC North.  Based on lots of factors, Green Bay's odds should certainly be better than 20-1.

So, that's the wagering recommendation – which flies in the stream of the way most NFL bettors are thinking, right now.  It's never good to go along with the crowd, and the timing to think outside the box has never been better than just before teams start training camps.

Here's a look at all NFL teams and their odds to win the Super Bowl this upcoming season: