Previous Day’s Record: 3-0
Overall Record: 11-7
Week 6 was good to us with a clean sweep as the Dolphins, Chiefs and Cardinals played up to expectations, aided by underwhelming showings by the Jets, Bills and Cowboys (and “underwhelming” is being generous with the Jets and Cowboys).
Week 7 isn’t so crystal clear since we have some tough match-ups to figure out, including a showdown between two undefeated teams and the Shakespearean tragedy that is the NFC East.
Here are the three games you should zoom in on as we attempt to continue making you money with our winning ways.
Tennessee Titans (5-0) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0)
The Titans are “favored” by just one point at home, which in reality means that the Steelers are the true favorites in this matchup if we consider that a true road underdog is at least three points down before any given Sunday.
The Titans have been impressive averaging 37.0 points per game in their past four contests, but all those performances have come against defenses ranked 21st or lower in points allowed per game as of Thursday morning. How will they fare against the third stingiest defense in the NFL, which gives up just 18.8 points per game?
Derrick Henry is definitely much better than Steelers running back James Conner, but Roethlisberger and Tannehill are even at quarterback, and Pittsburgh boasts a much more solid defense, plus deeper receiving core with Juju, Claypool, and Washington fully healthy.
My pick: Titans 27 – 30 Steelers (+1)
Houston Texans (1-5) vs Green Bay Packers (4-1)
It’s the Aaron Rodgers redemption game, as the Green Bay quarterback will make a Texans defense that allows 30.3 points per game feel his wrath after the meltdown he had in Tampa last week with a pick-six included.
The Texans would have to play keep away in order to win, making sure time of possession is lopsided in their favor, but their 31 st ranked running game doesn’t seem to be up to that task.
My pick: Texans 24 – 35 Packers (-4)
Los Angeles Rams (4-2) vs Chicago Bears (5-1)
Da Bears are atop the NFC North and undefeated on the road with a 3-0 record away from home, but their +12 point differential is the worst of any division leader not residing in Buffalo or Dallas right now.
The Rams, however, are also deceiving. They are 4-0 against the NFC East allowing 13.7 points per game, but take them away from that putrid swamp of woe and they are 0-2 against the Bills and 49ers with the points allowed jumping to 35 and 24 respectively. San Francisco kind of manhandled them last Sunday night with quick passes that neutralized Aaron Donald’s impact.
The Rams have more weapons on offense, so I will side with them to make the clutch play in a low-scoring affair.
My pick: Rams 20 – 17 Bears (+6)
-- by El Hombre