Best Bets NFL Edition: Week 6

NFL Oct 16, 2020

Previous Day’s Record: 2-1
Overall Record: 8-7

Last week was a positive one.  We nailed the Steelers winning and covering, and the Saints coming out victorious and not covering.  If the NFL had told me well in advance that Julio Jones wouldn´t play last Sunday, then the Falcons wouldn´t have let us down.  Damn it, Matt Ryan, I blame you for everything.  Maybe if the Falcons weren´t 0-5, vaccine development would be way more advanced and (most importantly) we would have been perfect last week.  

The wonderful thing is that Week 6 features 12 games on Sunday and another double dip with two great games on Monday.  Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, and Michael Thomas all have byes and are killing my Fantasy team this week, but neither you nor my girlfriend care about that.  She made that very clear.  On to our bets.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) vs New York Jets (0-5)

Miami is 0-2 at home this season and is favored to win for the first time in front of its socially distant crowd this Sunday.  New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold won´t be playing due to injury, so that means that 35-year-old Joe Flacco will be putting his sterling 6-0 record against the Dolphins (3-0 in Miami) on the line against 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 5-7 in his career versus the Jets.

The Dolphins are coming off their most complete game of the year during a 43-17 blowout win in San Francisco.  The Jets, on the other hand, have scored a combined 45 points in their last three contests under offensive genius Adam Gase.
As bad as the Jets are, this still is a rivalry matchup that has had a final score decided by eight points or less in their last 10 meetings dating back to 2016, when Gase went to the playoffs with the Dolphins.

My pick: The Dolphins (-9) win 24-17, but the Jets cover.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

Both Bills QB Josh Allen and Chiefs superhero Patrick Mahomes had their respective individual and collective vulnerabilities “exposed” playing from behind as both of their teams lost their undefeated status allowing 40+ points and unable to overcome hot games by the opposing quarterbacks.

The difference is that Mahomes is a Super Bowl winning quarterback who hasn’t lost consecutive games since Week 6 of last season.  Allen, on the other hand, needs to prove that he is not just an average quarterback who had a hot month of September.  And for that, he will rely on star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs had
seven receptions for 129 yards against the Chiefs as a Minnesota Vikings rookie in 2015, but just one for four yards against KC last year.  If Diggs can replicate his 2015 performance, the Bills have a shot. 2019 Diggs is a blowout in the making.

My pick: Chiefs (-4) prevail on the road 35-32. Take the KC Over (30.5) in points no matter what.

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) vs Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

The Cardinals must win this game to keep pace with the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West. The Cowboys must win this game to convince themselves not all is lost with Andy Dalton under center.

Dallas’ best shot to win will be to keep Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins on the sideline. That means a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott is coming Arizona’s way, and the Cardinals are 19th  in the NFL allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game.  If it’s a shootout, the Cardinals win, and that’s likely considering the Cowboys have allowed 40.0 points per game in their past four games and let the same New York Giants whose season-high had been 16 points to put up 34 against them last week.

My pick: Cardinals (-1.5) avoid the upset with a 31-27 win

-- by El Hombre


Photo Credit:  CBS Sports

Guest Contributor

Special correspondent and contributor and guest sports handicapper provides the latest news and information you can use to make your daily picks.