Betting Futures in the Canadian Football League 2021
Editor's Note: Welcome Nick Christenson to the staff. This is his second contribution to POINTSPREADS.CA. Nick will be posting his weekly CFL predictions and plays which are exclusive to this website. Read Nick's preliminary season analysis HERE.
Today, I'm looking at the futures markets in CFL betting for 2021. Here are my thoughts on the topic.
The odds used are those available at SPREADS.CA as of July 17th.
Hamilton Tiger Cats +350
The current betting favorite at every book right now is Hamilton. The TiCats finished first in the East in 2019 with the best record in the CFL, but lost the Grey Cup to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In 2019, Hamilton was first in per game scoring, as well as first in opponent scoring. Apparently, there will be a competition between Jeremiah Masoli and Dane Evans as to who will start at QB. I expect that to be Masoli, but either way, they have depth at that position. There is some turnover in their roster, but I expect both their offense and defense to be among the top units in the CFL. There's no question they should be easily favored to win the (once again) weaker East, which gives them excellent odds to reach the Grey Cup again. However, these odds price them to perfection, so I'll pass here, but they are at the top of my power ratings going into this year.
Saskatchewan Roughriders +500
QB Cody Fajardo had a true breakout season in 2019. The Riders finished 4th in scoring offense and 3rd in scoring defense last time out. Recent news that OT Brendon LaBatte will be sitting out this year leaves a hole in their OL that will be difficult to replace. Saskatchewan is a reasonable pick to win the wide-open West, but there will be stiff competition. Plus, despite Fajardo's great year in 2019, he hasn't played like that consistently. My inclination is to fade one-year breakout QBs in the following year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses a little bit. I don't think there's a bet at this number.
Calgary Stampeders +550
The Stamps had what for them was a disappointing year at 12-6, but that was without QB Mitchell for the first half of the season. They finished right in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive scoring. Their offensive line was the core of this team during their recent dynasty years, but that same line let them down in 2019, and now Brad Erdos is retiring. If they can rebuild their fronts on both side of the ball, they can return to their glory years and win the whole thing. If not, they could easily fall further down in the West standings. I don't have a bet at this number.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +550
The Bombers won it all in 2019 despite losing their top two QBs. Their third, mid-season acquisition Zach Collaros, will be their starting pivot in 2021. Their offense should be good. Their defense has holes that need filling, and they need to find someone to replace Medlock in the kicking game. However, they have an experienced core and enough talent to be a more than plausible contender this year. This number seems pretty fair to me.
Toronto Argonauts +750
The Argonauts entered training camp with nothing but questions. Basically, their plan seemed to be grab everyone they could get a hold of with talent and sort it out in training camp. Under normal circumstances, I'd say that's a fine strategy for a rebuilding team, but in a year with an abbreviated camp and no pre-season, I wonder if the decision makers in Toronto will be able to learn enough to make good decisions. Additionally, there's the question as to how long, or even if, the team will be able to gel this year. At the very least, I expect the Argos to improve as the season goes along.
Most sports books have Toronto in the +500 to +750 range to win the Grey Cup. That seems awfully optimistic to me. The best thing they have going for them is that, hey, someone has to be picked to finish second in the East, and it's not going to be the Redblacks, so why not? Even so, at the low end of this range, given a choice, I'd much rather fade the Argonauts at -500 or -600 than take them on the plus side. However, some books in Las Vegas and offshore have had them as long as +1400 to win the Grey Cup. That's just too big a number. If you can find them at that sort of number, they're worth a flier. To be sure, I make them in the 9 to 1 range to win, so even at +1400 such a bet won't win often, but it does represent significant value, in my opinion.
Montreal Allouettes +900
The Als are the other team with a decent shot at the second seed in the East. QB Vernon Adams had a breakout year in 2019, and Montreal is looking to ride him to a successful season this time out. However, as I said about Fajardo earlier, I'm suspicous about a QB coming off of their first good season, especially after an off year. Might he keep that momentum going? Sure, but .... at the same time, I'm even more worried about the Als defense this year. In 2019, they were second in the league in scoring defense, but dead last in yardage defense. While scoring is what matters, I find yardage to be more predictive of results going forward. The team has made some changes, as one would expect, but I'm not at all sure that they've gotten better.
The bottom line is that Montreal is also a contender for the two spot in the East, but there is a plausible argument for them regressing significantly. Remember, 2019 was their only season with a winning record since 2012. I don't know which will happen, but because of their potential upside, the +900 price, which I've seen as high as +1100 at some books, is a little tempting, but not enough to make me pull the trigger.
British Columbia Lions +1000
Just after signing marquee free agent QB Mike Reilly, the Lions had a disastrous 2019 season typified by the image of their all-CFL pivot lying on his back staring up at the ceiling of BC Place. It's clear that the Lions learned the lessons of what went wrong and have spent two offseasons trying to address those issues. The question is whether or not they'll be successful. I expect they'll do better this year than their 5-13 2019 record, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them finish last in the West. Is it possible that they'll do well enough to make the playoffs? Sure. I also expect them to improve a lot during the season, such that I'm looking at them to be a bet-on team in the second half, but that doesn't mean I expect them to be a winning team, and +1000 on them winning the Grey Cup doesn't tempt me in the slightest.
Edmonton Elks +1400
The Argonauts entered training camp with nothing but questions. Basically, their plan seemed to be grab everyone they could get a hold of with talent and sort it out in training camp. Under normal circumstances, I'd say that's a fine strategy for a rebuilding team, but in a year with an abbreviated camp and no pre-season, I wonder if the decision makers in Toronto will be able to learn enough to make good decisions. Additionally, there's the question as to how long, or even if, the team will be able to gel this year. At the very least, I expect the Argos to improve as the season goes along.
Ottawa Redblacks +1400
After a remarkable string of successes since entering the league as an expansion team, the wheels completely fell off the Redblack bus in 2019, finishing 3-15. Now in 2021 we have a new head coach, a new QB, retirements on the offensive line, and no Brad Sinopoli. This is another rebuilding year. My question to the oddsmakers is not why is this number so low, but how can any book have the Redblacks at the same or higher odds than any other team? On paper, this is the worst team in the CFL going into 2021. Gun to my head, would I pick them over or under 3 wins this year? I'd go definitely bet over, but that's only because they play in the East. I pick them to be the bottom team in the East, the bottom team in all the CFL, and +1400 to win the Grey Cup is way too optimistic for this team even in a high variance year.
