Betting Major League Baseball Totals

Baseball Jul 01, 2022

Which are the best OVER and UNDER teams in the major leagues when it comes to betting on baseball totals?  Let's find out....

Yesterday's Atlanta at Philadelphia game was a perfect illustration of taking advantage of the sports betting market being slow to react to reality.

Both the Braves and Phillies are among the best OVER teams in the majors. Philadelphia ranks first in OVERs.  Atlanta ranks fifth in OVERs.

However, the total on yesterday's game was only 8 runs.

Final score:  14-4.  The game went OVER in the bottom of the 3rd inning.

While that's only one game, it clearly shows we can profit from lagging market factors and odds that simply do not reflect the current state of affairs for the teams.

It's encouraging to see a simple data chart and possibly handicap games based on season results.

Let's take at all MLB teams and see which are the top and bottom performers as OVER and UNDER bets when it comes to baseball totals betting:

Note: Stats are current as of Friday, July 1st (source: TEAMRANKINGS.COM)

BET NATIONAL LEAGUE OVERS

Note the 8/9 teams which produce the most OVERs are National League teams.

Coincidence?

We think not.  Remember, the NL instituted the designated hitter rule for games in 2022.  However, MLB totals were (apparently) slow to adjust to this added boost to offenses.

Does this explain everything?  No.  There are many more factors, including bad pitching (note Philadelphia and Cincinnati are ranked 1-2, which have two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball).  Nonetheless, it's important to be looking at NL teams when picking OVERs and this data proves it.

BET AMERICAN LEAGUE UNDERS

Conversely, we're stunned to see to many AL teams among the best bets when it comes to betting UNDERs.  Out of 16 teams that have produced more UNDERs than overs in the 2022 regular season 11 of them are American League teams.

Also note, the two best UNDER teams in baseball are Houston and Detroit – both AL teams.  It's remarkable that these two teams combined over a total of 149 games have gone UNDER nearly 2/3rds of the time.  

These stats are remarkable.  The question is – will they continue?

SCORING IS DOWN

Probably the biggest factor to think about when betting MLB totals is the actualization that scoring is down this season.  Scoring has been on a steep decline over the past 14 seasons.

So far in 2022, games are averaging 8.28 runs per game.  That's the lowest mark in 23 years – and down 2.0 runs per game (19.5 percent) in just the last 14 years.

Again, will this continue?  MLB better hope not, since casual fans love home runs and scoring.  So, look for baseball lords to make changes at some point to boost the plate crossings.  Until then, we should be able to take advantage of situational UNDERs.

[Read more about the scoring decline in MLB here.]

We'll share more trends and facts as the season continues.

Now, let's Play Ball and Make a Bet!

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