Betting on the NHL's "Highest Scoring Game"

NHL Nov 23, 2021

SPREADS.CA offers odds on the highest and lowest scoring games of the night

Here's a fun way to be "in action" on every game of the night.

Consider betting on the "highest scoring game" or "lowest scoring game."

We love betting on hockey totals.  The thing is, games lined at 6 and 6.5 (which is common) can be tricky.  It's tough to lose an OVER bet then the goal count lands on 6 and you bet 6.5.  Conversely, how many times have we bet an UNDER on a 5.5 and an empty net goal wipes out our "winning wager" in the final seconds?

One way to hedge some of the variance on totals, and have lots of fun by keeping an eye on the scoreboard of all the NHL games of the day (or night) is to pick the game expected to produce the most (or least) goals.

Here's a screenshot of tonight's card, which has only three games.  These odds are listed HERE at SPREADS.CA.  So, with fewer games, it's a bit easier to make some judgments and then fire away with a wager:

Because Edmonton is playing tonight, they're expected to be the favourite as the game with the most goals.  Note the EDM-DAL game is +180 as the "highest scoring game" of the night.  PHL-TB is +200.  CHI-CGY is +210.

Handicapping Strategy Thoughts:

Many bettors will look at Edmonton playing tonight and instinctively want to bet that game to be the highest scoring.  After all, the Oilers boast the top two scoring leaders.  Edmonton is also the highest scoring team in the league.  They average 3.9 goals per game, and allow 2.7 goals, for a combined score per game at 6.6.

However, the best value might be to reverse engineer the numbers and think in terms of defense.  That means eliminating games expected to produce a low score, and then look to bet on the best situation to produce goals.  Obviously. starting goaltenders play a huge role in making any prediction.  However, we should also consider factors like fatigue and travel, which can influence both offense and defense.  

In tonight's games, consider Philadelphia averages only 2.7 goals per game, but the Flyers also give up a low number – 2.4 goals on average.  That's just 5.1 goals per game for the Flyers, who appear to be a really solid best "low total" bet.

But the real low total team is indisputably the Calgary Flames, who surrender an NHL low 1.7 goals per game.  The Flames have featured an NHL high 7 shutouts.  They're not exactly a scoring machine either, producing just 3.3 goal per game on average.

In summation, the Flyers-Lightning game doesn't look like it will be high scoring. Neither does the Blackhawks-Flames game.  This leaves the Oilers-Stars matchup. Now, we must ask is +160 a fair price?

With just three games tonight, this is a fairly easy process of elimination, which makes the Oilers-Stars game a decent value at +160.

Prediction:  We like Edmonton-Dallas to be the highest scoring game on the card tonight.