Toronto is a big favourite to beat Seattle in the wild card series and advance. The Blue Jays should be favoured, but should they be laying such a high price? Our Conclusion: Maybe there's value on the underdog Mariners.
The 2022 Major League Baseball playoff field is all set and the seeds in both leagues are locked in.
The new wild card series format is quite different from the past. It gives the top two teams in both leagues (by W-L records) in both a first-round bye. The remaining four teams in each league will play a "best 2 of 3" series. All three games in the wild card round will be played on consecutive days -- Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (if necessary) -- in the same ballpark with no travel.
The Toronto Blue Jays opened at 1.58 favourites hosting the Seattle Mariners, who come back at 2.58. Cleveland (1.76) hosts Tampa Bay (2.10) in the other AL wild card series. Over in the NL, the Mets (1.57) host the Padres (2.45). The other series has St. Louis (1.74) hosting Philadelphia (2.15)
See all the Spreads.ca odds here:
Prediction (powered by Pointspreads.ca):
We believe Seattle is a very dangerous wild card round opponent. The Mariners had just 2 fewer regular season wins than the Blue Jays, yet are priced as the second-biggest longshot of all the eight teams in this round. Anything can happen in any three-game series.
Add the fact that Seattle was 44-37 on the road, which is nearly as good as Toronto's home record (47-34).
We see the market still believes in Toronto, which was the preseason favourite to win the AL pennant. However, the value in this series is clearly with the underdog Mariners.
Sorry, Blue Jays fans. We like Seattle getting close to 3:2 odds on the payout to advance.