Here's why we expect the Stars to give the Flames a tough game on Wednesday night
The Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames are currently deadlocked at 2-2 in their best-of-seven playoff series.
Game 5 is scheduled for Wednesday night and could be the turning point or breaking point for either team.
To say that this series has been unpredictable so far would be an understatement. Each team has posted a shutout. Dallas has scored 2 goals or fewer in three of their four games. Meanwhile, Calgary has scored 2 goals or fewer in three of the four games. Moreover, each team has won a game in the other team’s rink as a visitour.
So, where do we begin to make a guess as to what happens next?
With the series returning to Calgary, oddsmakers at Spreads.ca make the Flames solid 1.44 favourites, which comes back on Dallas at 2.75. The betting total is low once again, posted at 5.5 goals shaded towards the under.
The puck drops at the Scotiabank Saddledome at 7:30 pm MST / 5:30 pm EST.
Go here to SPREADS.CA to see the full odds on this game and all NHL action, including boosted plays, which guarantee a positive expectation.*
Prediction (powered by Pointspreads.ca):
NHL analytics show the winners of Game 5 hold an all-time series record of 219-58 (.791). So, to say this is a big game can't be stressed any more strongly.
Calgary is an impressive 26-10-7 at home this season. However, Dallas is 8-3 in their last 11 road games versus the Flames. Dating back ten seasons, the Stars boast a 15-7-3 record in their last 25 meetings with Calgary. Dallas is also 4-4 at Calgary in the playoffs over that span.
Accordingly, while we agree Calgary deserves to be a sizable favourite, we see value with the underdog.
Dallas has proven it can hang tough with Calgary and we expect the Stars to give the Flames a tough game.
We will go with Dallas at 2.75 (roughly +180 on the moneyline) because we don't think Calgary has what essentially translates as twice as good a chance to win.