Editor's Note: Nick Christenson is handicapping Canadian Football League games this entire season and making picks each week. What follows is Mr. Christenson's CFL predictions and picks for the first game of Week 16 – which is a make-up game from earlier. He'll return late in the week for the remainder of this week's analysis and picks, which have been quite profitable.
Tuesday, November 16, 4:30 pm EST
Edmonton Elks at Toronto Argonauts
Toronto -7.5, Total: 47.5
In terms of the season, this game doesn't mean anything.
Toronto has clinched a first round bye and a home game afterwards. Edmonton
is out of the playoffs. Edmonton is playing just for pride and for next year. Toronto is playing just to keep their momentum from last week going as they head into the playoffs.
How much, if any, playing time will recent acquisition Nick Arbuckle see at QB for the Elks, or will Taylor Cornelius go the whole way as he did last week? Remember,
Edmonton still has one more game after this. This is the last regular season game for the Argos, they have a bye this weekend, and then they get to rest for the first round of the playoffs. Will they give a full effort in this game?
I think a line of Argos -7.5 is exactly right if one thinks that both teams will be going full speed. I have a suspicion, though, that the game means more to Edmonton than to Toronto. Consequently, if I'm going to bet in this game, it will be on the Elks, but I need a little more information before I would do so.
The one thing I'm listening for is how much of the game Bethel-Thompson will play for the Argonauts. If I hear that Pipken is getting real playing time, I will jump on the Elks getting more than 7.
I made the total 48, so I think this is about right, again, assuming both teams were playing at full speed. Again, if Toronto significantly restricts their starting QB's playing, then the under, or perhaps a 2nd half under, would be worthy of consideration.
UPDATE: The line of TOR -7 is now -3.5. Toronto announced they'll be starting Antonio Pipkin at QB. Not only that, but they're starting LOADS of other players with little or no CFL experience. I bet EDM +4 at Westgate (Las Vegas).
Nick Christenson has been using mathematical methods and computer modeling to as tools for successful sports betting for over 15 years. He lives and works out of Las Vegas, Nevada where, during rare off-seasons, he enjoys cooking, reading, and hiking.