Editor's Note: Nick Christenson is handicapping Canadian Football League games this season and making picks each week. What follows is Mr. Christenson's CFL predictions and picks for Week 10 – for the Friday and Saturday games.
Here's an update on this week's futures odds to win the CFL championship at SPREADS.CA:
CFL Week 10:
Friday, October 8, 8:30pm EDT
Edmonton Elks at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg -9.5, Total: 47.5
I don't think there's that much to say about this game. It has been a
month since Edmonton either won or covered a spread. In the same time
span the Bombers have won and covered in all four. The good news for
the Elks is that they'll get QB Trevor Harris back, but that's really
all I can come up with for good news for Edmonton who is facing the
league's best team on the road. I don't expect Winnipeg to win out this
year, but this will be their most likely win on their remaining schedule.
If anything, I think this line is low; I made the Bombers 12.5 point
favorites, so I'm willing to bet a little on the favorite at any line
below 10. The total opened at 48.5, which I thought was a tad high, as
I made it 46.5. Even with Harris back, I think the Elks' yardage total
will be low. There's a better than usual chance that Winnipeg just takes
the air out of the ball in the second half and cruises to a low scoring
win by two scores. There wasn't enough of a gap for me to bet the
opening total, and I certainly can't bet it now.
Saturday, October 9, 7:00pm EDT
Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan -3.5, Total: 44.5
This line is telling us that Saskatchewan, at 5-3 with two of their losses
coming against Winnipeg, is just a tiny bit better than Calgary, at 3-5
with only one loss to Winnipeg plus a loss to Edmonton. So, this feels a
little bit low to me. On the other hand, Calgary did beat Saskatchewan
by 6 at home last week, and my algorithms say this number is spot on
in the revenge game this week. We still have a lot of questions about
Bo Levi Mitchell. It sounds like he's slated to start, but CFL teams
have switched up their starting QB on the fans at the last minute several
times already this season. However, as I've said before, based on what
I've seen this season I'm not at all sure that Jake Maier wouldn't be a
little bit of an upgrade for the Stampeders. I made the total 43.5.
Looking at the board, I see numbers ranging from 43.5 to 45.5, but even
at the high end, that's not enough of a discrepancy to make me want to
lay -110 on a bet.
NOTE: CHECK BACK AGAIN FOR WRITEUPS ON TWO CFL GAMES ON MONDAY NIGHT.
Nick Christenson has been using mathematical methods and computer modeling to as tools for successful sports betting for over 15 years. He lives and works out of Las Vegas, Nevada where, during rare off-seasons, he enjoys cooking, reading, and hiking.