Editor's Note: Nick Christenson is handicapping Canadian Football League games this entire season and making picks each week. What follows is Mr. Christenson's CFL predictions and picks for Week 13 – for the (2) Friday and (2) Saturday night games.
This week's CFL odds according to SPREADS.CA:
Friday, October 29, 7:00pm EDT
Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa RedBlacks
Calgary -10.5, Total: 42.5
Just when I thought Bo Levi Mitchell looked like his old self, he goes and throws three interceptions in the Stamps loss at home to the Roughriders. Overall, Calgary still looks significantly better than they did at the beginning of the season, but maybe they’re just another member of the muddled middle of the CFL this season, and Stamps fans’ hope that they can break away from the pack are for naught. In any case, they’re playing Ottawa this week, so if they do roll, don’t be too encouraged by the result, as lots of mediocre teams get to look like champions when they play Ottawa. I made the line Calgary -10 and the total 43, so I have no play here.
Friday, October 29, 9:45pm EDT
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks
Hamilton -5.5, Total: 43
It’s too soon for Trevor Harris to play a role in Edmonton’s on field presence. I fully expect it will be Cornelius this week with Prukop as his backup. I think the line is spot on, but if anything I think this total might be a tad high. Hamilton is the lowest totaling team in the CFL and Edmonton is right in the middle of the pack. If you’re looking to bet an under this week, this is the one I think is most appealing.
Saturday, October 30, 4:00pm EDT
British Columbia Lions at Toronto Argonauts
Toronto -3, Total: 46.5
Once you throw out the top team and bottom two, the remaining six teams look pretty evenly bunched together in terms of their records. But take a look at other metrics, for example scoring differential, and one of those six is worse than the others, and that’s the B.C. Lions. The Lions have also dropped their last four, although, to be fair, two of those were against Winnipeg, which is understandable. However, I don’t understand why this game is lined as if these two teams were equally good, with British Columbia making the long trip to the Eastern time zone. This seems low to me. Moreover, it opened Tor -3.5 and has dropped to -3, and I
can’t figure out why. I’m waiting on the chance that the line will continue dropping, but if Toronto -3 is the best I can get, then I’ll bet that. I made the total in this game 48. It opened 45.5 and is now up to 46.5. If you bet the opener over, I think that’s fine, but in my opinion, it’s too late to make that play. If I were looking to play an over this week, though, to me, this one is the most compelling.
Saturday, October 30, 7:00pm EDT
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes
Saskatchewan -1, Total: 46.5
I made the line on this game Saskatchewan -1.5, and it opened right at that number followed by some movement in Montreal’s favor. Shiltz has been playing well, as the Als have gone 2 – 0 since Adams got injured (allthough, it should be pointed out, one of those games was against Ottawa). As of the time I’m writing this I see both Saskatchwan -1 and Montreal -1 available. If you think there is no or very little dropoff with Shiltz replacing Adams, then Montreal as a short favorite makes perfect sense. I made the total 47, so I have no interest in a bet on the total.
Bye: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Nick Christenson has been using mathematical methods and computer modeling to as tools for successful sports betting for over 15 years. He lives and works out of Las Vegas, Nevada where, during rare off-seasons, he enjoys cooking, reading, and hiking.