Chiefs Host Raiders on Monday Night Football

NFL Oct 10, 2022

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Raiders +7 (-110) O 51.5 (-110) +275
Chiefs -7 (-110) U 51.5 (-110) -350

At first glance, this looks like a matchup where Kansas City probably wins in a blowout. The evidence on this appears to be overwhelming.

First, superstar QB Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS versus the Las Vegas Raiders for his career.

Second, Kansas City is 34-21 ATS in division games under head coach Andy Reid. By contrast, Raiders' head coach Josh McDaniels and the Raiders are just just 1-3 this season. His career tenue as a coach in the AFC West (previously with Denver) shows a dreadful 12-20 record.

Then, there's the disparity of defences.  The Raiders’ vulnerable defence has struggled this season, surrendering 25 PPG and 357 YPG. They might get torched again tonight.

Indeed, those are ugly numbers when Mahomes is taking snaps at home for a primetime game. Indeed, Mahomes tends to shine when the lights are brightest and comes off a spectacular performance against Brady’s Buccaneers, last week.

Our analysis is that Andy Reid is way too good a coach and this is too good a team to suffer a letdown against a division rival here. Furthermore, Las Vegas had no answers for the Chiefs in their two meetings last season.  Kansas City topped the 40-point mark in each game. In those blowout victories, Mahomes slinged 664 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.  

But this outcome and which team covers could come down to coaching.  We've seen some in-game situations where Josh McDaniel and his unproven staff appeared confused and indecisive.  Raiders fans and backers should be very concerned.  

Accordingly, tonight – it’s either a bet on Kansas City minus the points, or a pass. So, why not just be the Chiefs?  Well two trends do give us a slight pause:

-- In the last 10 seasons, underdogs are 87-69-3 ATS in MNF games.

-- In the last 10 seasons, underdogs of 7+ points are 27-18-1 ATS.

Given these strong trends, the Raiders priced at +7 is just within the margins of being a tough game to call.  

You can bet the Chiefs based on the coaching and talent advantages.  Or, you can bet the Raiders based on historical trends.

Take your pick