Colts and Cowboys Sunday Night Stampede
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis at Dallas
Line: Cowboys -10.5
O/U: 44.5
Analysis:
This line seems a little high. As handicappers, we’d have it at -9.5 rather than 10.5.
The Colts are no prize, but since the coaching change and sideline housecleaning, they’ve played three respectable games — beating Las Vegas outright as underdogs, nearly upsetting Philadelphia before losing by 1 point, and losing to Pittsburgh by 7. But all three contests were one-score games.
Credit the Colts’ defense for playing pretty well under the circumstances (i.e., losing time of possession and field position battles in every game due to the ineffectiveness of the offense).
Offensively speaking, Indy faces one of the league’s best defenses this week, which doesn’t bode well for many points from the Colts. However, we also believe Indy brings enough talent on defense to keep this one UNDER the total, which looks high at 44.5.
Trends:
The Colts have gone UNDER in 9 of 12 games this season. Dallas has a reputation as a high-scoring team, but they’ve gone UNDER in 6 of 11. So long as we can avoid multiple big plays, this game should slide UNDER the total of 44.5. Indy also has the NFL’s #8 ranked pass D.
Final Pick:
We're hoping either the Dallas defense completely shuts down the Colts and/or the Indy defense continues to play competitively.
Big component–find 44.5 (at SPREADS.CA) since that’s much better than 44 and is a key number.
The Pick: Indianapolis / Dallas UNDER 44.5 [Full Game] (-110)
