Cowboys-Buccaneers: Our Pick

NFL Sep 09, 2021

The 2021 NFL regular season kicks off tonight.

For the 10th straight year, I'll be making NFL predictions and picks every week. You can read these picks here at POINTSPREADS.CA

Here's my thoughts on tonight's matchup:

Dallas at Tampa Bay (Thursday Night)

The main question for Dallas is the health of QB Dak Prescott’s shoulder.  Prescott is coming off two serious injuries.  He hasn't taken a game snap in 11 months (went out of the season due to injury early last year).  Now, in his first game back, he has to face one of the best defenses in football.  According to late reports, he will likely have to do that with one of his best offensive linemen out (Zack Martin). Preseason games might not matter, but Dallas' 0-3 record and lackluster showing this summer also didn't inspire much confidence.  Is it too early to call the Mike McCarthy hire another dumb Jerry Jones' mistake?  On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay looks loaded.  They also get to possibly feast on a terrible Cowboys' defense that surrendered a whopping 473 points last season, the worst in franchise history (60 years).  History is also on the Bucs' side.  In the last 18 years, the defending Super Bowl champs are 12-4-2 ATS in Week 1 the following year. The Bucs laying -8 .5is probably the right side if you must bet this.  But for me, that number is a little too high.  Just in case Dallas makes a game of this, and/or Brady starts showing some rust at his age, I'll instead opt to tease Tampa Bay from -8.5 to -2.5  That requires -125 in vig.  

The Play:  Tampa Bay teased to -2.5 (with San Francisco teased to -1.5).The rest of this week's picks will be posted on Saturday.