Every Late NFL Game Handicapped with Picks (Week 12)
Let's take a look at Sunday's four late NFL games (afternoon), starting at 4 pm ET / 1 pm PT....
Disclaimer: Opinions are those of Nolan Dalla. All information here and the comments provided on this website are for entertainment purposes only. I do not intend nor advise readers to make any wagers. Ultimately, you must make your own decisions about if to gamble, how much to wager, and which bets to make.
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2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD
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86 Wins
54 Losses
0 Pushes
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Las Vegas at Seattle
Line: Seahawks -4
O/U: 48
Analysis: This line opened at Seattle -3.5. It went to -4 on Saturday, which is somewhat less attractive, but still potentially worth a wager. Even at -4, this number shows disrespect to Seattle, which is 6-4, both SU and ATS. What's puzzling about the line is why anyone would be confident enough to wager on the 3-7 Raiders. Their three victories were vs. Denver (twice) and Houston, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The late win at Denver last week arguably hurts the Raiders in terms of urgency and motivation, since that victory does take some pressure off a franchise that's been reeling all season long and finally got a brief moment to celebrate. The bottom line is -- the head coach still hasn't proven to belong in the NFL and the Raider's defense ranks #27th in the league. Going on the road for a second straight week, versus a rested and well-coached team doesn't bode well for their chances of making it 2-straight wins. / As much as the Raiders have disappointed fans and backers, the Seahawks have been a surprise. They're tied for first place and have a realistic shot to win the NFC West. I'm tossing out their Week 10 loss in London to Tampa Bay, which was a rare third-straight road game, never a good omen for any NFL team. They simply ran out of gas in that situation, but now with 2 weeks to prepare and back at home, are likely to return to their previous winning form. I'm wary of a few factors -- including the Seahawks' defense which ranks below average in most categories and could get torched by the run. The weather could also hurt both passing games since rain is forecast. I think rain slows down both teams, probably creates a better UNDER opportunity, and takes me off Seattle as a -4 favorite. So, this will be a game-time decision for me. But my lean is to Seattle minus the points up to -4 and/or UNDER 48, if rain is falling at kickoff.
The Picks: No Official Plays (but could change at game-time)
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LA Chargers at Arizona
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 48
Analysis: The 4-7 Cardinals come into this game off a thorough humiliation, losing by four touchdowns last Monday night in Mexico City to the division-rival San Francisco 49ers. That's probably the final breath for the Cardinals as possible playoff contenders, who have been notorious for fading late in the season and are now repeating the fade once again as losers of 3 of their last 4 games. The Cardinals' only win in that span was with QB backups versus the Rams who now resemble an expansion team with their injury situation. It wasn't just that Arizona lost a critical game last week, it was the crumbling confidence we see on the field and on the sidelines. There's mounting evidence this team appears to have given up, especially the horrid Cards' defense which is as bad a tackling unit as there is in the league. Arizona's coaching staff also appears likely to get canned at season's end, and who knows where Kyler Murray's head is at the moment? On paper, the Cardinals should be a much better team, but tend to underachieve. Their problems are worsened by a short prep week, and a home crowd that likely won't provide any tangible advantages. Consider that Arizona is just 1-5 straight up at home this season. Their 296 points-per-game allowed also ranks #31st in the NFL. So, even if the offense shows up, it's doubtful the Cardinals can stop anybody. Wagering on the Cardinals doesn't provide much evidence for optimism. Although there's sometimes value in taking losing teams getting points, especially when there's no pressure to win, I view Arizona as untouchable right now. Meanwhile, at 5-5 and still in the playoff hunt, the Los Angeles Chargers are a hard team to figure out. Explosive one week, and inexplicably disinterested the next, I can't predict which team shows up. Fortunately, the Chargers' offense gets a super soft defensive opponent this week, giving QB Justin Herbert the opportunity to rack up some stats, and possibly points. Chargers' bettors should be concerned about their dismally poor rushing numbers, which are among the league's worst. However, given they also boast the #5 passing attack, why bother running the ball when they can throw? The Chargers in the first half could be worth a serious look. The line is Chargers -1.5 points. They average 15.2 PPG1H, ranking as the NFL's third-best in points production. Contrast this with the dismal Cardinals, who have trailed in 9 of their 11 games this season at halftime (Arizona averages just 9.2 PPG1H). There's no compelling evidence Arizona is suddenly going to put things together this week with shorter prep time, coming off a demoralizing loss, and are likely to have the cloud of an uncertain coaching future. Moreover, the Chargers rank better than average, going 6-4 versus the spread in the first half of games this season. I like bets on the Chargers, both in the first half and for the game.
The Picks: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (Full Game) (-110) / LA Chargers (First Half) -1.5
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LA Rams at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -15.5
O/U: 42
Analysis: Here's one of the highest pointspreads of the season. Who would have thought a defending Super Bowl champion would ever be an underdog by more than two touchdowns? That's how far the once-mighty Rams have fallen. Bryce Perkins (who?) was just announced as the Rams' QB this week, getting his start in the NFL, and the poor toad gets his welcome at Kansas City, one of the toughest stadiums in the league for the visiting team. Making things even worse for the Rams, WR Cooper Kupp is out for the next month. The offensive line is a shitpile, and the Rams have no running game (averaging 76 YPG, dead last in the NFL). How are they going to fucking score? Incredibly, the Rams team total is a staggeringly low "12.5," a number I don't ever recall seeing before in a regular season game. Hell, the UNDER still might be worth a bet. What I see as the smarter wager, however, is the game total to fall UNDER 42 points. Kansas City leads the league in several offensive categories, but will they run up the score here? I have my doubts. The Chiefs will also face the Rams' defense, which ranks a very respectable #10 in the league in yards allowed, something of a miracle since this unit gets no help nor time of possession assistance from the lousy offense. So, assuming the Rams' defense has any will to fight left, they're capable of at least slowing down the Chiefs. I can see Kansas City building an early lead, sitting on the ball, and winning easily. A shutout isn't out of the question either, given so many unproven components on the Rams' offense. Let's be generous and call this one 34-6 in favor of the Chiefs.
The Pick: LA Rams / Kansas City UNDER 42 (-110)
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New Orleans at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -9
O/U: 43.5
Analysis: San Francisco is laying a big number here, especially for a team returning home off a big win on a short week (they played Monday night in Mexico City). However, the spread is probably justified given how stellar the defense is playing, combined with some sense of urgency that the 49ers must continue to win to keep pace in the NFC West with Seattle (tied for first place). San Francisco ranks at the #1 defense in the league (in yards allowed) and surrenders just 17 PPG. Those factors enough could justify a wager on the favorite. Let's add that New Orleans struggled badly against good defenses this season, and the 49ers' solid front four should be able to shut down the Saints running game, which does pose some danger. If New Orleans can't run the ball, that puts the game on the shoulders of erratic Andy Dalton. He's *still* starting at QB for some reason (and never should have been signed in the first place), the confidence presumably lingering onward since the Saints somehow think they can sneak into the playoffs in a really bad division. But they'll likely lose this game and be exposed as the below-average team they are. Let's also give San Francisco a boost offensively, which is looking better each week. Winners of three straight, San Francisco won't let this one slip by in the same way they blew it earlier this season in baffling losses at Chicago and Atlanta. Here's another impressive stat: San Francisco is doing something right at halftime -- since the 49ers outscored their last three opponents 54-0 in the second half. So, I look for San Francisco to pull away later in the game and win by double digits. Let's also note the Saints' last three road games were all losses by 12-8-8 points, and those were to the lowly Steelers, Cardinals, and Panthers. Now, they face a far better team on the road with a great defense. I'll lay the chalk here with San Francisco.
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 (-110)
-- Nolan Dalla
