Here's Why We Like the Giants to Cover +7.5 vs. Philadelphia

NFL Jan 21, 2023

Sat: 8:15 ET / 5:15 PT
Line:  Eagles -7.5
Total:  48

Why we like the Giants and the points....

Aside from Jacksonville, the other surprise playoff team is the New York Giants, who were 125-1 to win the Super Bowl according to preseason odds.

To just about everyone's surprise, the Giants were the best team in the NFL against the spread this season, covering 14 of 18 games (to date). That includes an astounding 11-2 ATS record as underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles went 14-3 SU this season and won 14 of 15 games started by QB Jalen Hurts (the Eagles lost both of his two non-starts). Philadelphia also dominated the NY Giants in both games this season.

First instinct here, is that the Eagles are likely to win this game, but covering more than a TD will be far tougher. The hook on the touchdown at +7.5 makes the underdogs especially attractive.

We must admit to being (potentially) wrong about QB Daniel Jones of the Giants, who has been widely criticized many times in the past. He's certainly grown into the starter role (and team leader) this season, and especially in several critical games. Surprisingly, Jones performed very well on the road and as an underdog over the course of his career (Road Record: 18-7 ATS; Underdog Record: 27-15 ATS; and Road Dog Record: 17-5 ATS -- which is the 5th-best of 254 QBs last 20 years within that span, according to Action Network).

Let's also point out that while Jones hasn't been in this spot before (except for winning a playoff start last week), Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts has played just one playoff game in his NFL career, which was a 16-point loss to Tampa Bay last season.

Why we like the UNDER.....

There are also some overwhelming stats that favor the UNDER in this game.

First, the Giants and Eagles have the two best rush offenses left in the playoffs and were both ranked in the top 5 in the regular season (rushing YPG). Assuming they both run the ball more than average, that should keep the clock moving.  Key Stat: In the last 20 years, when two teams averaging at least 130 rush yds/game face off in the playoffs — which has only happened four times — the UNDER is 4-0, going under the total by 18 PPG.  

In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the UNDER is 17-5 over the last 20 years, going under the total by 6 PPG.  

It's also worth noting the UNDER is 33-16-1 in all Giants' games since 2020, the most profitable team to the UNDER.

The Picks:

New York Giants +7.5
NY Giants (First Half) +4.5
NY Giants / Philadelphia UNDER 48