How Las Vegas Sportsbooks See the NFL MVP Race

NFL Aug 31, 2021

In yesterday's feature article, we made a strong case for betting on Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints) to win the NFL MVP award in 2021.

We believe the optimal strategy on a futures wager of this kind is to identify players with value, that is, starters who aren't the favourites to win the accolades and affections of the betting public.

However, Las Vegas was built on crushed hopes and broken dreams.  The usual suspects are getting most of the action in sportsbooks.  Consider the latest update from the MGM-Mirage books, which handle several major Las Vegas casinos and their sports betting action.  Predictably, Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Bucs) is getting plenty of action.  But Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) appears to be the overall consensus.  

Below are latest betting insights over the past weekend from BetMGM for NFL MVP.

BetMGM NFL Insights: MVP Odds

Notable Bet:

  • $5,000 to win $70,000 on Tom Brady +1400

Line Movement:

  • Tom Brady: opened +1600, now +1400
  • Trey Lance: opened +30000, now +10000

Highest Ticket Percentages (as of Sept. 1)

  • Josh Allen 17.2%
  • Patrick Mahomes 9.5%
  • Matthew Stafford 8.4%

Highest Handle Percentages (as of Sept. 1)

  • Tom Brady 32.5%
  • Patrick Mahomes 14.9%
  • Josh Allen 10.9%

Biggest (Sportsbook) Liabilities

  • Trey Lance
  • Josh Allen
  • Tom Brady

According to MGM-Mirage, here are the odds and betting percentages for the most popular futures wagers on NFL MVP:

Check out the latest futures odds on NFL MVP betting and more at SPREADS.CA