Two significant developments shook up the NFL futures betting markets this past week...
– the 2021 NFL Draft, and
-- Packers All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers' earth-shattering announcement that he wants out of Green Bay and the ripple effects thereafter.
Hitting the Reset Button
Rarely do draft classes and rookie players impact on-the-field outcomes, especially early in the following season. However, personnel additions and changes in projected starting lineups of teams does jar several months of complacency in the betting markets.
After the Super Bowl each year, the projections on most teams don't change between Feburary and August, when preseason games begin. There is one exception. Within the seven-month offseason, the NFL draft is the singular inflection point when all teams are hit with the reset button.
The rest button wasn't just hit this year, it was smashed.
Tremers were felt in Jacksonville, New York (Jets), San Francisco, and Chicago. Each of those teams selected what they hope will be their franchise quarterbacks for the future. No on-the-field position shakes up an NFL team and bettors' mass expectations of a team than the starting quarterback.
With or Without You
However, speaking of quarterbacks, it's a cagey old veteran in Green Bay who rocked the NFL this week the most, and caused multiple domino effects with prospective teams where Rodgers might go, as well as the other teams within those divisions (most notably – the NFC North and AFC West).
For instance, if Rodgers leaves Green Bay and signs elsewhere, not only do the Packers' odds shift, but so do the numbers on all props correlated to the other teams within the same division. Green Bay would likely be favoured to win the NFC North with Rodgers, but without him the projections on rivals – Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota – increase.
The same is true for Rodgers if he ends up in Denver. The Broncos' numbers change dramatically, while the other three teams in the division – Kansas City, Las Vegas, and LA Chargers – aren't quite as strong.
MGM Musical Chairs in Betting Markets
Consider the odds shift at the MGM in Las Vegas:
“The big story coming out of the NFL Draft was Aaron Rodgers desire to play for another team. Since last Thursday, more than 40 percent of all bets have been on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl. BetMGM adjusted Denver’s Super Bowl odds from +6500 to +2000 and Green Bay’s from +1200 to +1600.”
– Seamus Magee, Sports Trader, BetMGM
Breaking this down further, let's examine several futures connected to the Rodgers' story:
- Packers: +1200 to +1600
- Broncos: +6500 to +2000
Highest Ticket Percentages
- Buccaneers 19.0%
- Chiefs 12.0%
- Broncos 7.8%
Highest Handle Percentages
- Buccaneers 28.0%
- Chiefs 13.6%
- Broncos 9.0%
Biggest Liabilities for Sportsbooks
All Teams (MGM Sportsbook Numbers – May 3rd)
SPREADS.CA has BFL futures and props on the board. However, some of these numbers are changing fast. We'll update our readers on the biggest adjustments to NFL numbers when things shake out in the coming days and weeks ahead.