I’ll Give You Props — NFL Week 6 [Early Games]
It looks like Covid-19 won't affect Week #6 too much, so we have 11 games lined up for the afternoon slate (1 PM/4 PM EST). There are plenty of individual match-ups to love and hate, but I have narrowed it down to my five favourite prop bets.
All odds are courtesy of Play.Spreads.ca.
Kenny Golladay -- OVER 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Jacksonville comes into Sunday's match-up with the worst-ranked Pass Defence in the NFL (Per Football Outsiders DVOA). That bodes well for Kenny Golladay, who should be heavily targeted in the second-highest projected scoring game (54.5 O/U).
Golladay will see a lot of Chris Claybrooks, who grades out as the 88th/115 ranked cornerback (per Pro Football Focus). In his only two games of the season, Golladay has seen 15 targets (7.5 per game) and has turned that into 10 receptions (5.0 per game), 119 yards and two touchdowns. He's seeing a target on 25 percent of his routes, which is tied for 11th on Sunday's slate of games.
A high-scoring shootout, a choice cornerback matchup and a large target share should culminate in a massive game for Golladay. If you want to take it one step further, I also like Golladay Anytime TD at -125.
Adam Thielen -- OVER 83.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Like his NFC North Division foe, Thielen has a terrific matchup on Sunday. He'll go up against a Falcons pass defence that has the third-worst DVOA through five weeks and has given up the second-most yards through the air.
For Thielen, he's seeing an absurd 31.6 percent target share and is being targets on 29 percent of his routes (third-best). He comes in averaging 72.8 yards per game but has two games over the 100-yard threshold, and I expect Kirk Cousins to force-feed him in what should be another high-scoring affair for the Falcons opponents (32.2 Pts Against/Gm).
Mike Evans -- UNDER 59.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Not a lot is working in Evans's favour for Sunday's meeting with the Packers. For starters, the NFL's best cornerback, Jaire Alexander, is expected to shadow him all day. On top of that, Chris Godwin will play for the first time since Week 3. In the two games that Godwin has played, Evans has averaged 4.0 targets, 1.5 receptions and 2.0 yards...yeah, you read that right. TWO YARDS. When Godwin doesn't play it's a different story--9.0 targets, 6.3 Receptions, 89.0 yards.
With Alexander following him all over the field, expect Tom Brady to look Godwin's way more often than not.
over the Bengals' D-line on the slate. That should open up plenty of holes for their Running Backs, primarily Taylor.
He has not played more than 55 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, but he's averaging more Yards/Carry than Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs. A breakout performance feels like it's on the horizon.
David Johnson -- UNDER 58.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Through four weeks, the Titans' Rush Defence was pretty mediocre, but then they shut down the Bills' running game on Tuesday. They were stout against the run in 2019, so you expect the Mike Vrabel-led defence to continue to make positive strides.
For Johnson, he's been solid, averaging 4.3 yards/carry and is coming off of his best rushing performance of the season. However, that was against one of the league's worst rush defences. This week, the Texans are likely going to be trailing on the road and will have to get away from the run game more than they'd like. I expect Johnson to continue to be involved in the passing game, but it may be tough for him to approach 60 yards on the ground while Houston is chasing.
Jonathan Taylor -- OVER 84.5 Rush Yds (-110)
At first glance, 85 yards seems like a stretch for Taylor, but it's more likely than you might think. The Bengals are giving up the third-most rushing yards against per game, and Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in football. According to PFF, the Colts run blocking has the second-biggest advantage over the Bengals' D-line on the slate. That should open up plenty of holes for their Running Backs, primarily Taylor. He has not played more than 55 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, but he's averaging more Yards/Carry than Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs. A breakout performance feels like it's on the horizon.
David Johnson -- UNDER 58.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Through four weeks, the Titans' Rush Defence was pretty mediocre, but then they shut down the Bills' running game on Tuesday. They were stout against the run in 2019, so you expect the Mike Vrabel-led defence to continue to make positive strides.
For Johnson, he's been solid, averaging 4.3 yards/carry and is coming off of his best rushing performance of the season. However, that was against one of the league's worst rush defences. This week, the Texans are likely going to be trailing on the road and will have to get away from the run game more than they'd like. I expect Johnson to continue to be involved in the passing game, but it may be tough for him to approach 60 yards on the ground while Houston is chasing.
__________
