Just as Predicted: Early Season Baseball has Few Surprises

Baseball Apr 17, 2022

Roughly ten games into the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season, nearly everything is going exactly as predicted.

Really, it's astonishing.

It's hard to find even one major surprise through the first two weeks of the season. Question – is it okay to be surprised that there are no surprises?

For instance. take a look at the early-season favourites to win each division:

AL East – Toronto and NY Yankees were co-favourites. Through ten games, the Blue Jays are in first place and the Yankees are in second.

AL Central – The Chicago White Sox were predicted to run away with the mediocre division and that's precisely what happening. Chicago holds a two-game lead and could go wire-to-wire through September.

AL West – The Houston Astros are clearly the class of this division and so far, they are living up to expectations in first place.

In the National League, we see similar results:

NL East – This is supposed to be the Mets' year, and thus far they are living up to the hype (prediction--it won't last). But credit the NY Mets for a strong start. Let's also give kudos to the reigning World Series champions. Atlanta is in second place at the moment.

NL Central – This is supposed to be a wide open division, and that's what's happening. The Cardinals are perpetually in contention. Milwaukee is also expected to compete, but anyone other than the Pirates and Reds can probably win it.

NL West – The LA Dodgers and San Francisco Giants tied for first.  Just as we thought. Credit the Colorado Rockies for also starting the season strongly.

As for the worst teams in baseball, let's have a look:

-- Arizona Rockies (predicted to win just 67 games) – in last place.

-- Cincinnati Reds (predicted to win 73 games) – in last place.

-- Miami Marlins (predicted to win 76 games) – in last place.

-- Texas Rangers (predicted to win 74 games) – in last place.

-- Minnesota Twins (predicted to win 73 games) – tied for last place.

-- Baltimore Orioles (predicted to win just 63  games and be the worst team in baseball) – in last place.

We have to expect something will break away from the pack.  As bettors, our goal is to determine which team(s) might offer value and which other teams are probably overrated.  That's the challenge going forward.

But at least for right now, baseball is going pretty much as we thought.

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