Main Takeaways on Super Bowl Prop Betting

NFL Feb 06, 2021

Everyone has an opinion on the Super Bowl.

Including us.

So, what we've done here is take several of the most compelling wagering possibilities and listed them here.  We've concentrated this report on props and provided a bit of explanation for each wager.


Here we go!

Game Prop:  Will the game be tied after 0-0 (NO at -105) – Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun makes a compelling argument here that a high-scoring games means less liklihood of a tie after kickoff.  The over/under on the game is 56.5 points, which is the third highest in Super Bowl history.  More points mean more potential score variations.  For example, a 7-7 tie is far more statistically probable in a game with 42 projected points than one with 56.5 projected points.  Some see two evenly matched teams and assume the game will be close throughout, but it doesn’t usually play out that way.

Game Prop:  Longest field goal made (UNDER 46.5 yards at -110) -- Both head coaches tend to be aggressive decision-makers.  They go for it on 4th down at midfield more often than other coaches.  They also know it’s going to take lots of points to win this game, so they aren’t going to settle for long field attempts, figuring drives need to end in touchdowns.  Besides, long field goal misses mean giving the ball over to dangerous offenses with great field position.  Possible rain in the forecast also decreases liklihood of longer Fg attempts.

Player Prop:  Tom Brady (TB) will throw an interception (NO at +125) – Brady has revamped his throwing style a bit this season as he gets the ball out quickly.  At age 43, he is clearly wary of taking hits at this point of his career and doesn’t hesitate to throw the ball away in a hurry to avoid a sack.  The Bucs are third in the NFL in opponent sack rate, with Brady only going down on a low percentage of snaps.  This number is inflated to the YES due to Brady's 3 interceptions last week, but that was an abberation.

Player Prop:  Chris Godwin (TB) UNDER 5.5 receptions – This is one of two props touted by analystics expert Rufus Peabody.  The Bucs offense is loaded with attractive targets for Brady, and with WR Brown back in the lineup, that's likely to be less passes heading Godwin's way.  Add a higher than average drop rate, and this becomes a wise bet.

Player Prop:  Chris Godwin (TB) UNDER 79.5 receiving yards – (See above.)

Player Prop:  Leonard Fournette total rushing attempts OVER 11.5 – Tampa Bay RB Fournette has gained prominence in the playoffs, with 48 rushing attempts in three games – each one clocking in at over 11.5 attempts.  So, given the Bucs won all three games we have to like him getting a similar number of carries here.  Last thing the Bucs want is Brady being forced into 60 pass attempts in the game, and Fournette should factor into that game plan.  Moreoever, one way to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field is generating long drives and burning clock.  This all factors into Fournette getting the ball.

Player Prop:  Leonard Fournette total rushing yards OVER 46.5 – (See above.)

Player Prop:  Patrick Mahomes (KC) will throw an interception (YES at +130) – Mahomes is likely to throw more passes in this game than Brady, and often moves out of the pocket, unlike his counterpart who isn't as mobile.  Mahomes doesn't throw many interceptions, but he's now face a much better defense that successfully badgered both Brees and Rodgers in the previous two games.  If Bucs can apply a similar degree of pressure, and some offensive line injuries makes this more likely, Mahomes is probably going to toss one pass to the wrong team.

Player Prop:  Darrel Williams (KC) UNDER 7.5 rushing attempts – With other ball carriers Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell also getting snaps, Kansas City will run the ball by committee.  All three RBs will split carries, and there might not be enough plays given how the Chiefs like to throw the ball.  Kansas City ran poorly against strong rushing defenses this season, and Tampa Bay rates as one of the best run defenses in the league.  Note that the early rushing total on yards was 32, but it's bet down to 26.5, so that's a pass.

GAME LINE:  The bet woud be Tampa Bay if the number was still +3.5.  But it's now +3, so this rates as a pass.  Thunderstorms in Tampa on Sunday (forecast as of Thursday) could drive this total down.  So, bet the UNDER now if you're inclined to like the number to fall below 56.5.

If you'd like even more background and details discussion, then watch this one-hour video on Super Bowl props.

Recorded on Tuesday, 2 Feb. 2021     LINK HERE