MLB Projected Win Totals -- Updated
What do analytics say about which baseball teams will finish where in the standings?
Fortunately, we now have some data that reveals some interesting predictions.
The 2021 Major League Baseball season is now nearly six weeks complete. But we already know a lot about the teams. There have also been several surprises. Baseball bettors now have reliable data for consideration as to making game predictions and even some futures wagers.
In previous articles (posted two weeks ago), we looked into moneyline, totals, and runline results for all teams.
Read the articles here:
2021 Regular Season Analytics for All Major League Baseball Teams (Moneyline Results)
2021 Regular Season Analytics for All Major League Baseball Teams (O/U Results)
2021 Regular Season Analytics for All Major League Baseball Teams (Runline Results)
Now, it's time to look at season-win projections (now), and division-win forecasts based on those W-L records. Here's the latest data from a site called EV Analytics, which are the projected win-loss records for every team over the remainder of the season according to THE BAT X projection system, created by Derek Carty, accounting for the quality of players on each team as well as their remaining schedule (LINK HERE):
2021 SEASON WIN PROJECTIONS (through 10 May)
Teams Projected to Have Winning Records:
Teams Projected to Have Losing Records:
Major takeaways:
(1) Projected division winners:
AL: NY Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
NL: NY Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, LA Dodgers
(2) San Diego and LA Angels will finish as wild card teams, but will end up with more season wins than at least two division winners – Milwaukee and Chicago White Sox
(3) Boston Red Sox, currently with the best record in baseball (22-14) will not have a winning record and will finish the season with just 80 wins.
(4) San Francisco Giants (21-14), currently in first place in the NL West ahead of both LA Dodgers and San Diego, will fade badly and end up with only 76.5 wins.
(5) Seattle Mariners, who started the season hot, are now at .500 and are projected to fall into last place in the AL West, with only 70.6 wins.
(6) Finally, no team will win 100 games, and no team will lose 100 games. Bookending the W-L results will be the LA Dodgers (98.7 wins – so theyll come close to 100) and Baltimore Orioles (65.1 wins, despite being at .500 at the moment).
