Standings and simple win-loss records don't always tell the whole story as to what teams and situations are a good bet versus a bad bet.
In fact, sometimes the numbers can be deceiving.
In today's article, we'll examine these numbers related to NHL totals and identify outlier betting situations based on the accumulated O/U results through April 5th, 2021. Note in the previous write-up, we examined some possible moneyline and puckline situations to watch for:
Here's a look at the overall wagering results of all NHL teams in this regular season:
Look at the last three columns, which are O/U results. So, what stands out? What situations are potential buried treasure that most of the gambling public hasn't caught onto yet?
Obviously, totals are largely dependent upon the starting goaltenders. Nonetheless, we might have uncovered some profitable discoveries which apply generically to each team no matter who's defending the net.
Here are some notable outliers from the chart:
(1) The Phildelphia Flyers are an OVER-bettors dream – The Flyers are an NHL's best 25-12 to the OVER this season, or put another way, they're a horrible defensive team. Philadelphia is surrendering goals at a blistering pace. They've eclipsed the OVER in 15 of their last 20 games.
(2) The Boston Bruins are an UNDER-bettors dream – The Bruins are an NHL's best 22-12-1 to the UNDER this season, which means they have above par goaltending. Boston has gone UNDER in 14 of their last 20 games, including one push. So, that's a 14-5-1 O/U result in recent games.
(3) The Columbus Blue Jackets are a solid UNDER team – Definitely in the target UNDER betting conversation are the Blue Jackets. Despite being totalled at 5.5 in a majority of games (many games are totalled at 6, or even 6.5), Columbus has still skated to a 14-24-1 O/U result this season. The Blue Jackets have gone UNDER the number 14-6-1 in their last 20 games.
(4) If Columbus is a solid UNDER team overall, they're a golden goose on the road – The Blue Jackets' road numbers really stand out, and probably should be in a class all their own. Inexplicably, Columbus has skated to 16 UNDERS as a visitor, while breaking the total only 3 times on the highway (with one push). Columbus' last dozen road games – 10 UNDERs, 1 OVER, 1 PUSH. There's probably still money to be made betting Blue Jackets UNDERs on the road.
(5) The NY Islanders are a Jeckyll-Hyde O/U team at home versus away – No team has as peculiar performance results as the wacky Islanders. Yesterday, we noted:
New York loves the Island – The NY Islanders love the home ice. Nassau Coliseum might be the worst venue in all of pro sports, but it's heaven and has given the home team a definitive advantage. At 15-3 SU, the Islanders currently enjoy the NHL's best home record. NYI is also 14-4 ATS in their ancient building, making them one of the most formidible home teams in the league.
For some reason, the NYI find the net much more frequently at home, going 12-5-1 to the OVER, but on the road they're the NHL's best UNDER bet – at 16-4 to the UNDER as a visitor!
Will these numbers revert to the mean? Might teams make adjustments the last 6 weeks of the regular season? Yes, perhaps. However, it's also likely to be profitable when taking advantage of betting totals that have been slow to adjust to recent trends.