Previous Day’s Record: 0-3
Overall Season Record: 5-4
The first three weeks of the NFL season had been so nice, and then we started this one with the first cases of COVID-19 shutting down team sites and unfortunately postponing a showdown between two 3-0 teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans.
On top of that, we had to endure the 0-3 Denver Broncos against the 0-3 New York Jets on Thursday Night Football, and one night of an Adam Gase-led team on national television is one night too many for anyone watching that game sober.
As we head into Week 4, some teams already have their season on the line while others look for redemption. In fact, I am looking for redemption myself after a down week preceded by two outstanding ones.
Here are three games that you should consider to make some money and get the month of October started with plenty of it in the bank.
CHICAGO BEARS (3-0) vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-1)
Upset Pick of the Day!
Vegas doesn’t seem to believe in Nick Foles and an undefeated Chicago Bears team at home as much as in…Philip Rivers and the Colts? The same Colts that started the year losing 27-20 at Jacksonville against the same Jaguars that got blown out by the Miami Dolphins in Week 3?
The Colts blew out the 0-3 Vikings and had two pick-sixes against the clueless Jets. Whoop-dee-doo, congratulations.
Granted, the Bears looked shaky against questionable opponents with Trubisky under center, but Foles provided a level of explosiveness that heated up a frigid offense in Atlanta and I expect him to continue performing well against a Colts defense bound to regress.
My pick: Bears (+2.5) 27 – 24 Colts
DALLAS COWBOYS (1-2) vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-1)
The Browns have a winning record for the first time since Week 15 of the 2014 season (ah, 2014, good ol’ normal 2014) while the Cowboys are the same mediocre team we have known for the past two decades.
The Cowboys should be 0-3, and they aren’t thanks to the Falcons, but they showed admirable resilience in a loss on the road to the red-hot Seattle Seahawks.
This is going to be a shootout, and the Browns win when they run the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while they limit Baker Mayfield’s opportunities. Mayfield threw the ball 39 times in the opening week blowout loss to the Ravens, and a combined 46 times in both wins. In fact, he threw less than 10 passes in the second half of both victories.
That won’t be possible against Dallas, and I expect to see a key Mayfield turnover deciding a close, high-scoring game.
My pick: Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) 36 – 26 Cleveland Browns
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK
GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-0) vs ATLANTA FALCONS (0-3)
“The Atlanta Falcons would be 2-1 if they had recovered an onside kick against Dallas and ran the ball against Chicago.” Yeah, and I would be a millionaire if I had invested in Apple 15 years ago.
Aaron Rodgers has seemingly achieved the quarterback version of Ultra Instinct, playing at an MVP level during the first month of the season completing 67 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions while his team scored 43, 42 and 37 points respectively in its first three games.
Now he is facing the second worst passing defense in the league, since the Falcons have allowed 350.3 yards per game in the year this year.
Atlanta won’t choke on Monday night in primetime because they won’t have a lead to blow this time around.
My pick: Packers (-7) 38 – 30 Falcons
-- Analysis by El Hombre