NBA Data Mining and Over/Under Results
NBA standings and win-loss records don't tell the whole story as to what teams are a good bet or a bad bet. Sometimes the numbers are deceiving.
READ PART 1 (NBA AGAINST-THE-SPREAD RESULTS) HERE
In today's article, we'll examine over/under results during the regular season and identify outlier betting situations based on the accumulated results through April 9th, 2021.
Here's a look at the O/U wagering results of all NBA teams for this regular season:
So, what stands out the most? What situations might be profitable that most of the gambling public hasn't caught onto yet? We might have made some profitable discoveries here. Note that it's also advisable to look closely at more recent O/U trends, since teams can and do change their tempos along with offensive and defensive strategies.
Here are some notable outliers from the chart:
(1) Unlike against-the-spread and home-away results, totals results aren't quite as extreme – In the previous report, we witnessed several situations with teams having 60-70 percent results. Those percentages aren't as dramatic in totals wagering. In fact, there's probably more randomness to O/U results.
(2) The New Orleans Pelicans are the NBA's best "Over" team – It's surprising to see the Pelicans, not known for great offense, to be the best "Over" bet among all NBA teams. New Orleans averages 114 points-per-game, which ranks 7th in the league. However, oddsmakers (and the betting public) have underestimated scoring projections in Pelicans' games. New Orleans is 33-17-1 to the Over this season. They're even better in breaking totals at home, going 20-6-1, which is 75 percent to the Over.
(3) Brooklyn is the highest-scoring team, with a bad defense – It's no surprise the star-studded Nets rank as the NBA's highest-scoring teams. Brooklyn averages 119 PPG (Milwaukee ranks second in team scoring). Trouble is, oddsmakers put high totals on Nets' games, so they're not quite as good an "Over" team as New Orleans. The Nets have posted 31 Overs and 21 Unders this season.
(4) Indiana is another good "Over" team – While we're discussing good "Over" teams, one of only three teams with 60 percent or better "Overs" is the Pacers. They have posted 30 Overs and 20 Unders. It's notworthy that Indiana is 12-12 O/U at home, but a stellar 18-8 to the "Over" as a road team.
(5) Some teams play more up-tempo/shoot better at home – The Washington Wizards and Oklahoma City Thunder play higher scoring games at home than away. Both clearly have results that demonstrate better Over prospects as the host team.
(6) The LA Lakers are the NBA's best "Under" team – This fact might shock many totals bettors. The defending champs haven't been the same team in 2021 as last season, but no one could have predicted they'd be such a great "Under" performer. The Lakers rank 23rd in the NBA in scoring (that's a surprise) and they rank second in team defense, allowing just 105 PPG. The Lakers are 19-32-1 in O/U results this season.
(7) The Dallas Mavericks are also a solid "Under" team – Dallas is known to be a high-scoring team, but the results don't bear out that reality. The Mavericks are just 39 percent to the "Over" this season, going 20-31 on totals.
(8) Houston is the best "Under" team at home – Houston, we have a problem if you're an "Over" bettor on this woeful team. But "Under" bettors have been locking up profits, especially when the Rockets play at home. Houston is 8-17-1 (38 percent to the "Over") this season. So, bet the Rockets Under the total when playing at home.
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