New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Our Pick

NFL Jan 15, 2022

Here's our pick for the second NFL playoff game, which kicks off this Saturday night.

Note this is only a partial menu of hundreds of possible wagers on this game.  Check out SPREADS.CA for more betting options.

New England / Buffalo UNDER 44 (-110)

We have no idea what’s going on with the game total.  On Tuesday, weather reports came out that Buffalo is expecting near-0 degree temps at kickoff and a 30 percent chance of snow (this is modified now, game time should be around 8 degrees for the opening kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it’s -5 degrees and there are going to be 10 mph winds throughout the night).  So, we bet the total at 43 early and were astounded when the total inexplicably shot up to 44 as of Tuesday evening.  So, what did we do next?  We placed even more money on the UNDER at this key number.  

Cold weather doesn’t always mean the UNDER is a good play, and snowfall can sometimes help offenses due to slick fields.  However, if we remember the game plan for the previous NWE at BUF contest, a late-season MNF matchup when the Patriots ran the hell out of the ball all night long, we think we can be confident in a similar game plan.  

Obviously, the Patriots will throw more passes this time around, and we don’t expect another 14-10 outcome, which was a stone lock lock for the UNDER.  But it’s hard to see New England deviating much from the success of their last win here.  

Buffalo will try to turn this into a shootout, but the cold could hurt both passing offenses, so we’ll stick with the UNDER.  

Keep in mind that when we bet total early, there’s a much greater chance they go down due to bad weather, than go up.  So, grab the 44 if you can still find it.  January totals outdoors can be tricky.  Key stat: UNDERS in the first round have hit about 64 percent over the past 10 seasons.

The pick:  UNDER 44 (-110)