Sunday Night Football
NY Giants at Washington
Line: Commanders -4.5
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Here's an unusual scheduling anomaly with back-to-back games versus the same opponent for Washington, with a bye in between.
Two weeks ago, these two NFC East rivals played a 20-20 tie in the Meadowlands. Now, they're back in the Maryland suburbs for the rematch.
This game probably means more to the Giants, who have been reeling lately and need a win to regain some lost confidence. After the Giants' surprising 6-1 start, they've faded in the second half of the season and are 1-4-1 in their last six games, including a really bad showing last week vs. Philadelphia. A few more losses, and it's possible for either Seattle or Detroit to catch them in the wild card hunt.
Meanwhile, while NY has been fading, Washington has flipped the script with the Giants, starting off slow, but then going a blistering 6-1-1 both SU and ATS in their last 8 games. A win here pretty much locks up a wild card spot and continues the Commanders' rising momentum.
QB Daniel Jones rightfully gets much of the blame for the Giants' anemic offense (#27th in passing and #23rd overall). But here's a surprising stat: Jones is 15-5 ATS as a road dog,
It's been the collapse of the Big Blue rushing attack which has been the bigger problem: In their four games, RB Barkley has been held to just 152 yards on 55 carries, which is a dismal sub-3.0 YPC. The Giants' defense gave up plenty of rushing yards on the other side of the ball, also -- 160-189-165-253 rushing yards in that same span.
This points to a justification for Washington being favored, despite these teams' identical 7-5-1 records.
Still, we're having trouble finding any value in Washington laying this many points.
3....? Sure. 3.5....? Maybe. 4.....? We don't know. 4.5.....? This is crazy.
We don't like bucking recent trends, but this is one of those cases of betting NUMBERS rather than teams or players. Sure, Washington looks like the superior team. But there's lots of equal space between these two teams -- evidenced by the tie in their last game.
The Giants are 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Washington.. So, in a game likely to be close and perhaps decided by a late FG, we're grabbing +4.5
New York Giants +4.5 (-110)