NFL Best Bets: Week #11 [this season 19-10 -- 64 percent wins!]

NFL Nov 19, 2020

Week #11 Best Bets:  Riding the Tua Train!

Last Week's Record:  3-0

Season Record:  19-10

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We are back in the winning column and feeling better than ever with our third 3-0 week since Week 6.  So, I hope you bought yourself something nice with all that money you are making from reading this column.

As we head into NFL Week 11, we’ll see who’s a contender and who’s a pretender. What we can´t tell is which surprise awaits us with only one undefeated team left against the Dallas Cowboys, monopolizing national attention for no reason whatsoever once again.

Here are my picks for a Sunday that promises to provide plenty of action.

Houston Texans (2-7) vs New England Patriots (4-5)

Everyone is hopping aboard the Patriots bandwagon, but I am getting off at the next stop. The Texans may be…well, they are a dumpster fire that is 2-0 against the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars and 0-7 against the rest of the league, but so are the New York Jets and they were a couple of mind-boggling decisions away from defeating the Pats on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.

If Joe Flacco could punish the New England secondary with deep throws to Perriman, I expect Deshaun Watson to inflict twice the damage looking for Will Fuller V. The counter could also be that the Texans allow a league-high 167.4 rushing yards per game, so that bodes well for Bill Belichick´s disciples.

It comes down to who can inflict the most damage on the air and on the ground, and I think it will be the home team landing the most painful blows.

My pick: Texans (+ 2.5) 26 – 20 Patriots

Denver Broncos (3-6)  vs  Miami Dolphins (6-3)

These two teams mirror each other in more ways than their records.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has yet to throw an interception in his career after three games Broncos QB Drew Lock has thrown at least one in his past five games and threw four last week against the Raiders.

The Dolphins have made it a habit to get out to big leads and expand them every week since Week 5, not coincidentally the start of their current five-game winning streak. The Broncos have a penchant for getting out to big deficits. 30-9 vs Kansas City, 24-3 vs the Chargers, 20-3 vs Atlanta and 30-6 last week in Vegas.

Long story short, Dolphins should dominate and the Tua train keeps rolling in Denver.

My pick: Broncos  16 – 31  Dolphins (-3.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)  vs  Los Angeles Rams (6-3)

It’s hard to go against Tom Brady as a favourite to win in primetime, but the Rams defense has been dominant lately and is fifth in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed. Force Brady to throw a lot under constant fear of Aaron Donald, and a “tired” Tampa Bay team that was off until Thursday will be in deep trouble against a motivated opponent that has a path to win the rugged NFC West.

My pick:  Bucs  23 – 26  Rams (+3.5)

-- by El Hombre

Headline Photo Credit:  Sports Illustrated

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