NFL Conference Championship Games — Analysis and Picks

NFL Jan 28, 2023

It's NFL Championship Sunday.  Here are our picks with analysis on both matchups.

In the NFC Championship, the No. 1 seed and NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles will play host to the No. 2 seed and NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.

We were going to skip betting a side at +2.5, but when the line moved to a FG, we jumped on SFO.

The 49ers' 10-game win streak including 9/10 covers combined with the Eagles going just 1-4 ATS in last five games compels us to take the points with the NFL's #1-ranked defense.  If The 49ers' defense can shut down Dallas, they are certainly capable of the same vs. Philadelphia.

On props, we like both TEs to go OVER on catches and yardage, as they'll be the QB safety valves to two aggressive defenses with solid pass rushes.  PHI TE Goedert has gone over his yardage total in 10/13. He's caught 8-7-7 passes in three career playoff games. SFO TE Kittle has become increasingly important to QB Purdy and is coming off a game where he had the key play, which likely means Purdy will look to him again in times of pressure.


In the AFC Championship, the No. 1 seed and AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs will play host to the No. 3 seed and AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been on a monster ATS run, going 21-5 since Oct. of last season. They're also 6-1 in playoff games with Burrow at QB.  

Beating Buffalo (make that whipping Buffalo) as the road team last week was a huge confidence boost.  Also, Cincy has beaten the mighty Chiefs in three straight games.  

Add some valid concerns about QB Mahomes *not* being 100 percent healthy, and this bet on the Bengals is a no-brainer.

On props, Ja'Marr Chase has been the favorite WR target for 10 weeks now, going 7+ receptions in 9/10 games.  Versus a vulnerable KC secondary that often gives up yardage and big plays, We'll take OVER on Chase's receiving props.



San Francisco +3 vs. Philadelphia (-120)

Prop: Dallas Goedert (PHI) OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-115)

Prop: Dallas Goedert (PHI) OVER 4.5 total receptions (-120)

Cincinnati +1.5 vs.Kansas City (-110)

Prop: Ja'Marr Chase OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115)

Prop: Ja'Marr Chase OVER 7 total receptions (-130)