NFL Deep Dive: Winning Division
The deeper you dig, the better the chance to strike gold.
We're launching a new series here at POINTSPREADS.CA. Let's call this "Deep Dive."
Over the next four weeks, we'll be looking closely at the more unusual wagering options at SPREADS.CA. The Deep Dive bets include futures, propositions, and other exotics that aren't typically on the radar screen of most bettors. But these hidden gems do provide some wonderful wagering opportunities and chances to profit.
You just have to dig. Which is easy.
So, where are the NFL Deep Dive numbers? They're easy to find at SPREADS.CA, even if you don't have an account. Click on the site, then click NFL FOOTBALL on the left side of the menu. That brings up the main menu for upcoming games. Look for OUTRIGHTS, click there. Then, across the top you'll see several options for upcoming football games and events. There's quite a lot of betting options, so be prepared to spend time surfing the possibilities.
Here's a screen shot of the WINNING DIVISION odds:
Next, let's look at the betting proposition – which division (team) will win the Super Bowl?
WHICH DIVISION WILL PRODUCE THE SUPER BOWL WINNER?
Wait. Isn't the Super Bowl still more than three weeks away?
Yes.
So, that means there are some eccentric bets that will only be available through this coming weekend. One futures option is to consider WHICH DIVISION will produce the NFL champion. There are eight divisions, and each one of them has at least one team represented. Of course, the divisions with at least two teams would seem to have a better chance of producing a winner (2 teams in the hunt, instead of 1). However, the NFC North (Green Bay) and NFC South (Tampa Bay) have just one team represented. Nonetheless, they are 2nd and 5th in odds, respectively.
Let's also note that the AFC North gets the least respect from the betting market. Even though that division has two teams – Cincinnati and Pittsburgh – the odds rank that division to be the weakest of all eight. The AFC North is listed at 12-1 odds.
BEST BETTING STRATEGY
Look for value.
Note the Green Bay Packers team future is +380. The NFC North "Division Winner" is also +380. So, there's really no added value to this Deep Dive bet.
However, if we look at the NFC East, there are two very live teams listed – Dallas and Philadelphia. No doubt, the Cowboys are capable of making a Super Bowl run. And, if the Eagles can pull off an upset at Tampa Bay this week, they are very much in contention as one of the NFC's four finalists. So, there appears to be a slight overlay with the NFC East. We get two capable teams at 10-1 odds (+1000).
Contrast this with the AFC West, which is +350. Obviously, Kansas City deserves to be favoured (Tennessee, as the top seed might argue). And Las Vegas is also included in the futures bet. Nonetheless, these odds seem like a poor value, especially if we contrast the AFC West against the NFC East. Is one division really 2.5 times as likely to win as the other (KC/LV at 3.8-1 and DAL/PHL at 10-1)?
We think not.
BETS WE LIKE
Value wise, we like two wagers:
NFC East at +1000 – Dallas and Philadelphia are both contenders and if you like the Cowboys, it's hard to find better odds than this. So, you might as well couple that bet with the Eagles, which is a dangerous team. This is clearly the best two-team combination on the board for the money.
AFC South at +850 – Tennessee is the lone representative from this division, so they deserve to be ranked lower than most other divisions. The advantage enjoyed by the Titans is twofold. First, they get a first round bye, guaranteeing they will be one of the final eight teams (so, +850 already gives them value). Second, the Titans enjoy home-field advantage in the playoffs. So, they get to host possibly two playoff games and are likely to be favoured in at least one of them. So, getting this price is a bargain, if you like Tennessee's chances.
BETS WE DON'T LIKE
We see the AFC West as a terrible bet. The odds simply aren't high enough to justify this, no matter how much you might favour the Chiefs and the Raiders.
We also think the AFC East is priced poorly, at +450. This is because two teams from that division will play in the first round (New England at Buffalo on Saturday), so only one will advance to the divisional round. No matter what your opinion of the Patriots and Bills, this is probably a futures bet to be avoided.
