NFL Deep Dive: Wildcard Weekend Specials

NFL Jan 14, 2022

The deeper you dig, the better the chance to strike gold.

We're launching a new series here at POINTSPREADS.CA.  Let's call this "Deep Dive." This is the third part of the series, with many more to come.  Here are the Deep Dive segments we've published, so far:

DEEP DIVE:  SUPER BOWL MVP

DEEP DIVE:  SUPER BOWL WINNING DIVISION

Today, we're examining the "WILDCARD WEEKEND SPECIALS."  This will be explained, momentarily.

Meanwhile, here's a screen shot of the current odds at SPREADS.CA (which are subject to change):

Next, let's look at the betting propositions – (1) How many Wild Card teams will advance (win games) in the first round? and.... (2) Will more than 1.5 Wild Card teams advance?

Note that all of the Wild Card teams are visitors this weekend, and all six Wild Card teams are underdogs.

BEST BETTING STRATEGY

The best strategy is always to look for value.

If you really like the Wild Card teams to win this week, it's probably better to make a wager on the exact number of such teams to advance past the first round.  If not, in other words--if you like the home favourites to win--then it's probably better to make a wager on the UNDER 1.5 (at +120) proposition.  That way, you can suffer one upset, and still win your bet at plus money.

Obviously, the most likely "upsets" should happen in games lined with lower point spreads.  This means San Francisco (+3) at Dallas and Arizona (+4) at LA Rams.

The games with the higher point spreads are allegedly less likely to produce upsets, which means Wild Card teams should have a much tougher time advancing past the first round.  This means Pittsburgh (+12.5) and Philadelphia (+8.5) are the teams least likely to win.

BETS WE LIKE

Underdogs have historically done well in the Wild Card round.  In fact, underdogs have covered the spread at a 55 percent rate (108-89-4) during the first round, dating back to 2003.

However, we need these teams to win outright in order to advance for the purposes of grading this wager.  Those percentages are quite promising, producing 10 outright winners and 12 losers over the past five seasons.  So, given these are underdogs 10/22 is a pretty impressive percentage.

Accordingly, we should lean to YES or OVER bets on these Wild Card teams.  They do well historically.  So, it's just a matter of determining the optimal betting opportunity.

Odds wise, we lean to 3 TEAMS at +375.  We also like 4 TEAMS at +1300. Obviously, four underdogs winning outright is an unlikely prospect, but it could happen, especially with 4/6 games lined at less than 6 points.  The payback of +1300 is very attractive, especially if you lean to betting the Wild Card teams.

BETS WE DON'T LIKE

The OVER 1.5 on Wild Card teams to advance doesn't look attractive, particularly at the =150 lay price.  It's very possible the home favourites roll this weekend and win 5/6 or 6/6 games.  I'd hate to be stuck on a ticket laying 3:2 odds and needing the Cardinals to upset the Rams on Monday Night in order to win my wager.

Instead, the specific numbers of wins for Wild Card teams looks like the wager(s) with much better value.

NOTE:  Over the next four weeks, we'll be looking closely at the more unusual wagering options at SPREADS.CA.  The Deep Dive bets include futures, propositions, and other exotics that aren't typically on the radar screen of most bettors.  But these hidden gems do provide some wonderful wagering opportunities and chances to profit.

NFL Deep Dive numbers are easy to find at SPREADS.CA – even if you don't have an account.  Click on the site, then click NFL FOOTBALL on the left side of the menu.  That brings up the main menu for upcoming games. Look for OUTRIGHTS, click there.  Then, across the top you'll see several options for upcoming football games and events.  There's quite a lot of betting options, so be prepared to spend time surfing the possibilities.

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