NFL Deep Dive: Super Bowl MVP

NFL Jan 13, 2022

The deeper you dig, the better the chance to strike gold.

We're launching a new series here at POINTSPREADS.CA.  Let's call this "Deep Dive."  

We'll be looking closely at--and maybe even betting on--some of the more unusual wagering options at SPREADS.CA.  The Deep Dive bets include futures, propositions, and other exotics that aren't typically on the radar screen of most bettors.  But these hidden gems do provide some wonderful wagering opportunities and chances to profit.

You just have to dig.  Which is easy.

So, where are the NFL Deep Dive numbers?  They're easy to find at SPREADS.CA, even if you don't have an account.  Click on the site, then click NFL FOOTBALL on the left side of the menu.  That brings up the main menu for upcoming games. Look for OUTRIGHTS, click there.  Then, across the top you'll see several options for upcoming football games and events.  There's quite a lot of betting options, so be prepared to spend time surfing the possibilities.

Here's a screen shot of the SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS:

Next, let's look at the betting proposition – who will win the Super Bowl MVP with all the top possibilities.


Wait.  Isn't the Super Bowl still more than three weeks away?


Most bettors will wait until the week of the big game to place bets.  However, it's possible to find added values now, even before which teams and what players will be participating.  In fact, this makes the odds much more attractive, especially on popular fan favourites who are certain to be bet down as kickoff approaches.

The early bird gets the worm.  So, let's get into the market early.


Look for value.


Is there any value to players like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady?  Near kickoff, the answer is no.  If you want to get +150 odds on either superstar and lose considerable value in the meantime, by all means wait.  However, if you think Green Bay or Tampa Bay will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, these bets should be made now.

Let me repeat – make these types of wagers NOW.

Rodgers at 6-1?  Brady at 10-1? To win the Super Bowl MVP?  How would you like to be holding one of those tickets at kickoff?

See, that's why these bets should be made early, not later.


As we stated above, every player is much higher (and better) odds because we don't know the teams or participants.

The key fact to know is, quarterbacks overwhelmingly win this award.  With the passing games so important, the Super Bowl winning quarterback enjoys a tremendous advantage when it comes to the voting.  Few non-QBs can generate the kind of stats necessary to steal the trophy.  So, it's probably a good idea to stick with quarterbacks of teams that have a good chance to make it to the Super Bowl

A few to consider are Dak Prescott at 16-1.  Of Dallas can win the next three games and make it to the Super Bowl, he's at least a co-favourite at kickoff to take the MVP award.  Prescott is enjoying his best season ever, and with the Cowboys potent passing attack and scoring machine, he's probably better than 16-1 at this point.

In the AFC, Joe Burrow (Cincinnati) or Mac Jones (New England) might be worth a bet at 22-1 and 30-1 respectively.  The Bengals and Patriots will be dogs assuming they win the Wild Card games and they'll need to get on a roll.  But either team is capable of beating either Kansas City or Tennessee.  If that happens, one of them could make the Super Bowl.  I'd love to be sitting on a Joe Burrow to win the MVP award at kickoff, priced at 22-1.  If Cincy gets to the big game, he's probably more like 3-1 on game day.

One more:  Gronkowski at 82-1?  Really?  Tom Brady's favourite target could catch 2-3 touchdowns and rack up 150 yards in receiving.  If that happens, he's live for the MVP voting.  Will this happen?  Okay, it's a longshot.  But at 82-1 money?  Give me a ticket.

The key word:  Value.


It's probably a waste of money to wager on any player above 100-1.  Based on history, these position players have almost no shot.  The days of a Chuck Howley (the only player from a losing team to win, back in 1971, are over).  Defensive players do sometimes win the award, but that's rare.

A few exceptions to the "don't bet crazy longshots" rule...we like these bets:

Ezekiel Elliot at 150-1 – If Dallas makes it and EE has a huge game, he's the man.  Might be worth a bet.

Joe Mixon at 201-1 – If Cincinnati can upset their way to the Super Bowl, it will possibly be on Mixon's legs and might be the MVP.  He'll get plenty of touches for sure, and could certainly put up a huge game in stats if the Bengals can somehow get there.

T.J. Watt at 252-1 – No, not J.J. Watt (Arizona), who is also listed.  Watt for the Steelers set a new NFL sack record this season.  If longshot Pittsburgh makes it to the Super Bowl, a real flier, it's likely to be due to a solid defense.  Watt is one of those game changers who like other defensive linemen (NY Giants, Dallas in previous Super Bowls) pulled off shockers and walked away with the MVP trophy.