So far, we're 2-0 on NFL parlays this season. That's +5.2 units, if you're keeping score. Here's another parlay pick for Week 3. Let's hope the third time is just a sweet a charm.
Just in case you're not familiar with a parlay, that means we're making two wagers which are combined into a single bet.
The tricky part is -- both wagers must win (which means to cover the pointspread). The payoff is that parlays always pay back more money when we win. For instance, a standard 2-team parlay pays $2.60 in profit for every $1.00 wagered. That's a great deal! But remember, both wagers must win. If we go 0-2, or split and go 1-1, that means the parlay loses.
Now, let's look as some possible winning parlay combinations for NFL Week #3.
NFL Betting Odds (Week #3)
Predictions (powered by Pointspreads.ca):
Many sportsbooks don't allow correlated parlays. That means wagers which are directly correlated or connected.
An example would be to bet the Buffalo Bills in the first half and also bet them in the game and try to make that into a parlay. The problem is, that's not allowed. We can bet Buffalo on separate wagers, but not as a parlay. If you can find anyone who takes a first-half and a game bet on a parlay ticket, something's probably wrong.
So instead, we look for quasi-correlated parlays. Fancy words, huh? This means a betting ticket that includes two separate possibilities, but which are also somewhat linked. A great example is betting a big favourite with the over. That's allowed in parlays. The reasoning goes -- if a big favourite covers a high pointspread, then lots of points are probably going to be scored, and the game will go over the total. So, it's correlated. Kinda'.
NFL Parlay of the Week [Week #3]
In the JAX-LAC game, everything swings on Bolts' QB Justin Herbert, listed "day to day." Even if he starts, who knows if he's at 100 percent?
That makes the feisty Jaguars +7 worth a look getting a full TD.
Just as compelling wager looks to be the UNDER at 47.5. We have a Charger's D that's definitely improved over last season. They held Raiders to 19 and Chiefs to 20, two of the best offenses in the NFL. So, let's presume LAC coming off ten-days rest and resting comfortably at home looks to be in a good spot.
Meanwhile, the Jags come off their best game in years, a 24-0 shellacking of Indy at home, and now fly west. We should credit the Jags D for the whipping they put on Indy. Not sure if that unit is for real, or not, but assuming Herbert isn't at 100 percent, this probably plays into fewer points than average coming from the Chargers.
The LAC rushing game is also underperforming. Chargers are averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
Key Stat: UNDERs have been solid this season overall in the NFL, 21-10-1 (good for 66 percent covers).
Kickoff in Los Angeles is at 4:15 pm EDT / 1:15 pm PDT.
The Pick: The total here at 47.5 looks way too high. Fewer points scored also play into the Jaguars keeping this close. Jaguars-Chargers UNDER 47.5 with Jaguars +7.