NFL Picks and Predictions: Week 10

NFL Nov 13, 2021

2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD

40  Wins

31  Losses

1  Push

My weekly picks went 5-2 last week (6 plays on Sunday and 1 play on Monday night).

I'm pleased with the rebound and overall 56.3 percent winners on 71 wagers, to date.  As I've written previously, anything over 55 percent is success in NFL handicapping, and assuming we get to 150-200 wagers for the season (my average number of picks per year), that would represent a very positive return on investment.

Here’s a look back at last week’s numbers.

READ LAST WEEK’S REPORT HERE and HERE

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WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS (Thursday Night game completed)

X -- Baltimore -7.5 vs. Miami (-110)  -- LOST

Dallas -8.5 vs. Atlanta (-110)

I'll happily fade the wildly inconsistent Falcons, who repeatedly have difficulty stringing together solid performances (and Matt Ryan's career forte).  Coming off a huge upset win at rival New Orleans, last week, this looks like a great fade spot, especially with Atlanta on the road the second straight week while Dallas is playing consecutive games at home.  It's a huge step up in class for the Falcons' defense to face Tua Tagovailoa (Miami), Sam Darnold (Carolina), and Trevor Semien (New Orleans) to Dak Prescott (Dallas) who is coming off one of the worst games of his pro career and should be extra motivated this week.  The Cowboys' defense also has something to prove after making Denver's offense look spectacular last week, and I expect a better effort.  Any chance this would be a trap game for the favorite was erased by Dallas getting embarrassed and Atlanta winning a huge road game six days ago.  Look for a return to expectation here a Dallas gets back into the 30+ scoring category.

New Orleans +3 vs. Tennessee (-110)

The Titans are the NFL's hottest team, not only winners of 5 straight, but they've also defeated several good teams including the Rams, Bills, Chiefs, and Colts (twice).  Incredibly, the Titans were underdogs in all five of those games.  New Orleans seems like a much softer opponent, especially given the Saints' offensive concerns.  No doubt, the Saints have deteriorated offensively (28th in the NFL in yardage, just 314 YPG).  Much of this decline is due to chaos at the QB position since Drew Brees's retirement.  However, we should also note the Saints have a long history of slow starts and making steady improvements in midseason under Sean Peyton.  New Orleans has posted four straight 11+ win seasons, which now appears to be in jeopardy as they sit with a 5-3 record and many question marks.  In this game, I look for the Saints to play up to their level of competition.  New Orleans is a solid road team (3-1 this season).  New Orleans also needs this game far more than the Titans, who could be due for a clunker after such a strong run of games.  We see this in the NFL all the time (note Baltimore getting hammered by Miami on Thursday night) where overrated teams fail to prepare and lose.  Some bettors probably think the Titans deserve to be favored by more points, and it's easy to see why, but in the wildly unpredictable NFL sometimes we have to go with a gut instinct that the dog will put up a good fight.

Carolina +10.5 vs. Arizona (-110)

Carolina / Arizona UNDER 44.5

Arizona appears to be the class of the NFL right now, with the league's best record and convincing wins against top-level opponents.  Clearly, last week's 14-point win on the road at San Francisco with the Cardinals' two best offensive weapons on the bench was a major wake-up call that this team isn't just very good, it's also deeper in talent than we realized.  But here I'm going to fade a betting market that may have overreacted by making the Cards a double-digit fave (the only other game this was the case was against awful Houston).  The Panthers at 4-5 made big news this week with the resigning of Cam Newton after QB Sam Darnold's injury was deemed serious enough to possibly miss the rest of the season.  He won't factor into the game plan here.  Instead, the Panthers will start PJ Walker (who?).  I suspect Arizona takes this opponent lightly and we see a sloppy low-scoring game.  So, I'm taking the points and also playing UNDER 44.5

Philadelphia +3 vs. Denver (-120)

Denver played their game of the season last week, thumping Dallas on the road.  However, I don't see a carryover here.  The Broncos remain an inconsistent offense and a badly-coached team (only the Bears coaching staff is worse).  Meanwhile, for all the accolades the Broncos receive for a good defense, the Eagles offense is underrated.  Philadelphia has scored 21+ points in 8/9 games this season.  And for some reason, the Eagles play better on the road, where they're 3-2 this season (losses at Dallas and at Las Vegas.  I see a close game here that could break in either direction, so I'm taking the +3 points.

Green Bay -3 vs. Seattle (-120)

Politics aside, Aaron Rodgers back under center for the Packers should be enough for them to rebound off a loss.  Let's face it, this is an entirely different team with Rodgers throwing the ball, and arguably the NFL's best all-around roster.  Laying -3 seems like a gift (line moved to -3.5 in some places).  Oh yeah--but what about Russell Wilson?  I suspect the injury (finger) and recovery is being rushed as Seattle at 3-5 is desperate for a win, and this is probably a must-win situation.  With the NFC Wild Card race wide open, the Seahawks see an opportunity to get back into contention and Wilson gives Seattle its best shot.  But Seattle's defense remains an issue and with one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL, the Packers should easily move the ball.  I have no problem laying points here.

NOTE:  I'm also playing these FIRST-HALF TEAM TOTALS

Cleveland OVER 9.5 (vs. New England)

New England UNDER 10.5 (vs. Cleveland)

New Orleans OVER 9.5 (vs. Tennessee)

Seattle UNDER 10.5 (vs. Green Bay)

Washington OVER 9.5 (vs. Tampa Bay)

Denver UNDER 10.5 (vs.Philadelphia)

Philadelphia OVER 9.5 (vs. Denver)

Las Vegas UNDER 10.5 (vs. KC Chiefs)

MNF: San Francisco UNDER 10.5 (vs. LA Rams)

THIS WEEK’S BETS (SUMMARY):

Baltimore -7.5 vs. Miami (-110)

Dallas -8.5 vs. Atlanta (-110)

New Orleans +3 vs. Tennessee (-110)

Carolina +10.5 vs. Arizona (-110)

Carolina / Arizona UNDER 44.5

Philadelphia +3 vs. Denver (-120)

Green Bay -3 vs. Seattle (-120)

Cleveland OVER 9.5 (vs. New England)

New England UNDER 10.5 (vs. Cleveland)

New Orleans OVER 9.5 (vs. Tennessee)

Seattle UNDER 10.5 (vs. Green Bay)

Washington OVER 9.5 (vs. Tampa Bay)

Denver UNDER 10.5 (vs.Philadelphia)

Philadelphia OVER 9.5 (vs. Denver)

Las Vegas UNDER 10.5 (vs. KC Chiefs)

MNF: San Francisco UNDER 10.5 (vs. LA Rams)

NOTE:  This is the final report for NFL Week 10.  16 bets in all (plus Thursday game, completed)