NFL Picks: Week 11
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My weekly picks went 11-5 last week (1 play on Thursday, 14 plays on Sunday, and 1 play on Monday).
I'm pleased with the overall 58.6 percent winners on 71 wagers, to date. As I've written previously, anything over 55 percent is success in NFL handicapping, and assuming we get to 150-200 wagers for the entire season (my average number of picks), that would represent a very nice return on investment.
WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS:
X -- Atlanta +7 (vs. New England (-128) -- Risking $384 to win $300 -- LOST
X -- First Half: Atlanta Team Total OVER 9.5 (-140) -- Risking $280 to win $200 -- LOST
Despite the horrible results on Thursday's game, I'll continue trying to identify line value and bet accordingly. Here are the bets I've made so far.
Indianapolis +7 (vs. Buffalo)
The Colts have played well since their 0-3 start. They've gone 5-2 and even the two defeats were within the margin of a TD. So, I like getting +7 here. Buffalo may be the class of the AFC but they've also played a ridiculously weak schedule. Indianapolis should keep this close enough to cover.
NY Jets +3 (vs. Miami)
It's hard to pull the trigger on the Jets but they've defeated TENN and CIN at home this season. After a woeful effort last week, I expect the Jets to rebound versus a much softer opponent that's coming off a huge upset win. Miami doesn't deserve to be favored by a FG over anybody, especially a division rival. I say the Jets keep this one close and certainly could win outright.
Baltimore -6 (vs. Chicago)
The Ravens played a dreadful game in Miami and now have the pressure on to stay in the playoff hunt. It's tough to lay this many points with a team that's underachieved but Baltimore is so superior offensively to the Bears that they should cover this number. The Bears are giving up 30 PPG in their last four losses (they haven't won since upsetting the Raiders back on Oct. 10).
Tampa Bay -10 (vs. NY Giants) (-123)
The Bucs coming off a loss playing at home on MNF should be in a nasty mood. I look for Tampa Bay to roll up the score here against the wildly inconsistent Giants.
Green Bay/Minnesota UNDER 47.5 (-110) -- BEST BET
Green Bay has played 7 straight UNDERs (and covered in all). Minnesota has played UNDER in 5 of last 7. Total looks a little high here, failing to adjust for two offenses that eat up clock with ball control. Bet the UNDER, especially with the number north of a key total, 47.
All these are first half team total bets.
JAX Jaguars Team Total Over 9.5 Points -115 for the 1st Half -- Risking $115 to win $100
IND Colts Team Total Over 9.5 Points -145 for the 1st Half -- Risking $145 to win $100
MIA Dolphins Team Total Under 10.5 Points -115 for the 1st Half -- Risking $115 to win $100
NY Jets Team Total Over 9.5 Points -130 for the 1st Half -- Risking $130 to win $100
WAS Football Team Team Total Over 9.5 Points -120 for the 1st Half -- Risking $120 to win $100
CAR Panthers Team Total Under 10.5 Points -125 for the 1st Half -- Risking $125 to win $100
NOR Saints Team Total Over 9.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
PHI Eagles Team Total Under 10.5 Points -130 for the 1st Half -- Risking $130 to win $100
MIN Vikings Team Total Under 10.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
SEA Seahawks Team Under 10.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):
X -- Atlanta +7 (vs. New England (-128) -- Risking $384 to win $300 -- LOST
X -- First Half: Atlanta Team Total OVER 9.5 (-140) -- Risking $280 to win $200 -- LOST
Indianapolis +7 (vs. Buffalo) -- Risking $330 to win $300
NY Jets +3 (vs. Miami) -- Risking $330 to win $300
Baltimore Ravens -6 (vs. Chicago) -- Risking $330 to win $330
Tampa Bay -10 (vs. NY Giants) (-123) -- Risking $369 to win $300
Green Bay/Minnesota UNDER 47.5 (-110) -- Risking $550 to win $500
JAX Jaguars Team Total Over 9.5 Points -115 for the 1st Half -- Risking $115 to win $100
IND Colts Team Total Over 9.5 Points -145 for the 1st Half -- Risking $145 to win $100
MIA Dolphins Team Total Under 10.5 Points -115 for the 1st Half -- Risking $115 to win $100
NY Jets Team Total Over 9.5 Points -130 for the 1st Half -- Risking $130 to win $100
WAS Football Team Team Total Over 9.5 Points -120 for the 1st Half -- Risking $120 to win $100
CAR Panthers Team Total Under 10.5 Points -125 for the 1st Half -- Risking $125 to win $100
NOR Saints Team Total Over 9.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
PHI Eagles Team Total Under 10.5 Points -130 for the 1st Half -- Risking $130 to win $100
MIN Vikings Team Total Under 10.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
SEA Seahawks Team Under 10.5 Points -135 for the 1st Half -- Risking $135 to win $100
