NFL Picks: Week 12

NFL Nov 27, 2021



58  Wins

47  Losses

1  Push



Buffalo Moneyline (-255) vs. New Orleans -- Laying $1275 to win $500 -- WON  READ MORE HERE

Buffalo has stumbled 2 of the last 3 games but still has the nucleus of a possible Super Bowl contender, while the Saints are showing that Drew Brees's retirement also means the launch of a rebuilding phase.  The Bills are capable of beating any team in the NFL as a visitor (note their blowout win at Kansas City).  New Orleans doesn't boast the home-field advantage of years ago and HFA is a diminishing factor in NFL handicapping, anyways.  I don't know how New Orleans will play the rest of the season with Trevor Semien at QB, who is showing why he's been bounced around the league like a rubber ball.  Semien is weak, average-armed, and shows no leadership capability.  Remember that he came into the season as the third-stringer and is probably another loss away from getting pulled in favor of the hot dog vendor.  The Saints still have weapons on offense but they haven't been used effectively.  The Saints rushing game is diminishing by the week (101 YPG the last 3 after being in the top ten the first 8 games).  And, Buffalo is the stingiest defense in the NFL, allowing just 287 YPG -- that's not a good recipe for the Saints to turn things around.  In games after a loss, Buffalo has rebounded strongly.  Buffalo is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 SU after a loss this season, outscoring opponents 106-28.  I feel comfortable laying the price here with a large wager on the Bills.

TEASER:  New England -1 / Washington +6 (-120)

New England is suddenly the NFL's hottest team, winners of 5 in a row, and playing well both offensively and defensively.  Tennessee would normally be a tough test, especially given their perfect 5-0 mark (SU and ATS) as underdogs.  Here's another spot where oddsmakers may have underestimated the Titans.  However, Tennessee limps into this game with some serious injuries, especially to the receiver corps.  Three starting WRs are out, and with RB Henry sidelined as well, that puts lots of pressure on Tannehill and Co. to come up with alternative methods to create points.  The last time the Titans' WR corps was this banged up, Tennessee lost outright to the Jets.  It's simply too much to overcome for the Titans to rebound from the loss to the Texans last weekend and now go on the road and beat a well-coached Patriots team that's peaking at the perfect time.  Moreover, the Titans can afford another loss given their soft division, while New England now eyes overtaking the Bills in the AFC East.  Based on injuries, the line moved from NWE -2.5 to -7.  I'm not laying that number, so instead, I'll tease it down to -1 and combine with the Washington play on MNF (see below).

NY Giants (vs. Philadelphia) Team Total UNDER 20.5 (-120)

The Giants are averaging 18 PPG (16 PPG the last 3), which already makes for a compelling UNDER bet on their team total of 20.5  However, the Giants also fired the offensive coordinator (ex-Dallas bustout Jason Garrett), which is probably a long-term positive, but a short-term disruption.  I fail to see how the NYG will suddenly flip the switch this week and improve their offensive slide, especially off the short week.  The Giants looked horrible in their MNF loss at Tampa, and now face the resurgent Eagles who are suddenly back in the playoff hunt.  The Eagles were a good value at -3, and now the line has now moved to -4, so that shifts my bet over to the Giants team total UNDER 20.5.  The key here is to capture a win on 20, and even with -115 vig, the timing is right for this wager.

Minnesota +3.5 (vs. San Francisco)

The Vikings were probably the right side at +3 and with the line moved to +3.5, this now becomes a compelling wager.  Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, but have played much better of late.  Given the way Minnesota has played the last three weeks, beating Green Bay and the LA Chargers, and losing in the final seconds at Baltimore, the Vikings appear to be capable of beating just about anyone at the moment.  Minnesota's most remarkable stat is being the only NFL team to have led by 7 points or more in every game so far this season.  That stat shows the Vikings have been prepared every week.  I'm not a fan of QB Cousins and this offense.  However, they're averaging 30 PPG the last 3 games.   Even if San Francisco win, this isn't the type of team that wins big and covers large spreads.  Give me the +3.5.

MNF:  Washington pick (vs. Seattle)

Here are two teams heading in opposite directions.  Seattle's season looks pretty much done at 3-7, even with QB Russell Wilson's return.  He didn't spark the offense in two defeats (Green Bay and LA Rams), and now a night road game doesn't seem like the ideal recipe for reversal.  I'm giving Washington (WFT) much more credit than oddsmakers, coming off two very impressive wins  both as dogs -- beating Tampa Bay and Carolina.  I don't understand why WFT isn't laying -2 or perhaps -3 in this home host game versus the NFL's most disappointing team.  Here's their only MNF game of the season, and the WFT should rise to the occasion.  The Seahawks don't have much to play of here, while Washington does -- especially with division-leader Dallas now stumbling.


Buffalo Moneyline (-255) vs. New Orleans -- WON

TEASER:  New England -1 / Washington +6 (-120)

Minnesota +3.5 (vs. San Francisco)

NY Giants (vs. Philadelphia) Team Total UNDER 20.5 (-120)

MNF:  Washington (pick) vs. Seattle

NOTE:  This is the final report for NFL Week 12.