2022 NFL Picks (Week 1)
I'm the editor of Pointspreads.ca.
I’m back for another season of NFL analysis and picks. This will be my 11th consecutive year of making weekly football picks. I’ve enjoyed 7 winning seasons and suffered 3 losing seasons (2012 – 2021). The past two seasons were also posted here at Pointspreads.ca (we began in 2020)
Each week from now until the Super Bowl to be played next February, I shall examine the full schedule of upcoming matchups (Thursday through Monday). I’ll offer an opinion as to what factors might contribute toward making a wager. Yes, I do wager on most of my own selections. In other words, I put my money where my mouth is. However, you are cautioned that all information here and the opinions provided on this website are for entertainment purposes only. I do not intend to advise readers to make any wagers. Ultimately, you must make your own decisions about if to gamble, how much to wager, and which bets to make.
NFL handicapping has changed significantly in recent years as it’s become more mainstream. Analytics has come to dominate much of the public discussion on sides, totals, and propositions. It’s hard to argue with reliable data. The trouble is — everyone can now get information and all these components are already baked into the odds. Still, I’m a big believer in data, trends, and angles. I also believe successful handicapping requires anticipation. We can’t ride waves. To win, we must try and be ahead of them, which means trying to anticipate what might happen next before anyone else recognizes what’s on the horizon.
For me, that often requires being a contrarian. As a widely published author, I first coined the term “contrarianism” as it applies to NFL handicapping in my writings 25 years ago, which has since become a common part of the sports betting lexicon. Tell someone you’re a contrarian and most will understand your outlook. This means fading (or betting against) popular sentiment. Sometimes, being a contrarian can be a lonely endeavor. But we’re not doing this to make friends. We are trying to make winning bets and earn money.
So, who am I and why am I here? Here are just a few background articles you may want to read, that is — if you intend to follow my analysis and picks each week and are unfamiliar with my background and historical results:
10 Years of NFL Predictions and Picks: My Updated Record
Updating My NFL Halftime Betting Angles
Note that I’ve been doing this publicly since 1995 and have written thousands of articles and posts on NFL betting, many of which can be found in a Google search. I’ve gone through many ups and downs, which is to be expected when betting on sports over the long run. I’ve had some fun, as well. I’ve also encountered moments of frustration. One season, I went broke. But I’m also about $11,000 ahead overall with the free weekly picks (on posted picks) during the previous decade. The web is filled with many of my past articles, videos, rants, and posts. Nonetheless, I come into each new season with optimism and a fresh outlook.
Thanks for the trust you have shown in visiting this website. I hope to provide information over the next 22 weeks that will prove useful. If I can be entertaining and even amusing as well at times, then that’s already a winning season.
ALL LINES ARE BASED ON WHAT'S AVAILABLE AT SPREADS.CA. ALSO NOTE THE BONUSES, BOOSTED BETS, AND OTHER ATTRACTIONS AT SPREADS.CA
2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $10,000.
Net Gain/Loss: + $0
Last Week’s Results: (0-0) + $0.
SCHEDULING AND THE RELEASE OF UPDATES
Most weeks, I’ll have some opinion on the Thursday night game. That means the first weekly report should get posted Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Then, I’ll update the weekly report (usually on Saturdays) which will cover the bulk of games, which are played on Sunday (and Monday night). Occasionally, I add a very late pick to the report, which happens on game day (often Sunday morning). This happens when injuries occur, weather conditions change, or some unforeseeable event occurs. We can’t always make our best picks midweek. Sometimes, it’s best to wait until closer to kickoff. All of these updates and changes will be clearly marked. I hope to make this report easy to read or browse.
I am undecided on whether or not to make fresh video content every week. Surely, I’ll post some videos, often live on Facebook and directly from a sportsbook here in Las Vegas. Many of my videos are widely available on Facebook and YouTube.
Speaking of Facebook, you may wish to follow me there if you want to read exchanges and engage in discussion. Things can get pretty lively online, and I always enjoy reading and posting NFL stuff on that platform. CLICK HERE
One personal request: If you have any ideas on how to improve the reports or would like to share your ideas, feel free to post them in the “comments” section below. You may also email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
BUFFALO BILLS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110) o52.5 (-110) -140
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (-110) u52.5 (-110) +115
What an ideal way to kick off the regular season. The defending Super Bowl champions (Los Angeles Rams) are hosting the team that’s favored to win the next Super Bowl (Buffalo Bills). I’m surprised to see Buffalo as a -2.5 favorite. I don’t ever recall a Super Bowl champion opening the next season at home and being an underdog. This game spread is driven by two factors. First, the public loves Buffalo. Second, the LA Rams enter the season with several injuries and may not be at 100 percent. Nonetheless, this line does seem disrespectful to the Rams. Super Bowl champs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 openers. / The total is about what’s expected, in the low 50s. Betting the O/U all comes down to what you expect will happen with the Rams’ defensive line, which is the team’s strength. If they pressure QB J. Allen and create problems, the Bills won’t score as many points as projected. If they’re unsuccessful, Buffalo could light up the scoreboard and this game might turn into a shootout. / On quarters-halves-props, I see some value in taking the Rams +0.5 in the first half. LA should be ready at home and the defense is stout enough to frustrate the high-scoring Bills. Taking the points with a proven performer in its own arena in a big game strikes me as a justifiable wager. As for the full game, one key stat that pulls me in the direction of taking the home dog: Under S. McVay, the Rams are 5-0 straight up in Week 1 action–LA is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread in those games. There are valid reasons to love Buffalo as the season progresses and they certainly could open up with a bang. Nonetheless, I want some proof that the Bills are really the #1 team on power rankings. I want to see results first before making them road favorites versus the reigning Super Bowl champs.
LA Rams +0.5 (first half) — $220 to win 200
LA Rams +2.5 (game) — $220 to win $200
Note: Will return later in the week with more analysis and picks.