NFL Playoffs: Divisional Weekend Analysis and Picks from Tim McGarvey (a.k.a. The Gravy Train)

NFL Jan 19, 2023

Today, sports bettor Tim McGarvey shares his NFL playoff analysis and picks for this weekend's games.

But first, let's look at the midweek odds on all four playoff games:



JAX @ KC (KC-8.5, o/u 53)

As soon as I saw the lines come out I jumped on a KC - 2.5 / PHI -1 teaser (What could go Wong?) for 2 units.  At least at my sportsbook, I have seen this line fluctuate up to 9 and back down to 8.5 where it seems to have stabilized.  This game has the look of one of those traditional "low-seeded team has a gutsy win in an improbable fashion followed by coming down to earth when they go on the road to play the 1 seed coming off a bye and get blown out" kind of stories.  JAX played very poorly in the first half last week, and they will not be able to get away with that against a superior KC team this week.  I like KC laying the points here, but might not bet it as I am not sure I want 3 units riding on one side of one game.  I also like the under here and can see this game going 31-16, or something.  

NYG @ PHI (PHI -7.5 O/U 48)

The Giants gave up 48 points to the Eagles at home and were down 16 at the start of the 4th in their second matchup.  Yes, QB Daniel Jones looked very good against the Vikings, and yes, it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one year.  But I just can't see it this week.  I like PHI giving the points, although (again) I haven't bet it yet myself for the same reasons as above.  Total seems right to me so no action there.  I have a half unit bet on Hurts over 249.5 yds passing / AJ Brown over 0.5 receiving TD at +300 where I think there's value.

CIN @ BUF (BUF -5 O/U 48.5)

I bet BUF early at -3.5, but I still like them at -5 IF the CIN injury report looks as expected.  Baltimore has a set of middling good, but not particularly great pass rushers, and they give Cincy's O-line hell with Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa out.  Neither practiced on Wednesday.  The Bengals offense was flat and ineffective as Burrow simply didn't have time to throw for most of the second half.  Again depending somewhat on injury news I am leaning UNDER on the total, and will likely bet if the next injury report looks the same as today's and the line doesn't move.

DAL @ SFO (SFO -3.5, O/U 46)

The Niners team composition and top-to-bottom talent level are amazing and a testament to the work their front office has done. They also looked great against the Seahawks.  QB Brock Purdy, though, threw 2 interceptable balls in the Wild Card game which weren't intercepted and the throws he completed were mostly to wide open receivers.  I think he'll struggle in this game if it's close, which I think it will be, and I think getting +3.5 points are a nice thing to have.  I'm taking DAL with the points, and wouldn't be surprised to see this game decided by a field goal either way.  If that happens, the Cowboys cover.  I also have a couple props on this game: Kittle over 39.5 yds / Aiyuk over 39.5 yards / McCaffrey over 49.5 yds rushing for half a unit at +201, and game goes to overtime at +1360 for .3 of a unit.  

About the Author:  Tim McGarvey is an amateur poker player, sports bettor, and whiskey connoisseur. When not writing, he is an IT executive and consultant.  He lives with his wife and two children in Maryland.

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