NFL Sunday Night Football: Props and Predictions

NFL Nov 08, 2020

Week 9 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Sunday Night Football features a battle of NFC South foes with the New Orleans Saints heading to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Saints come in at 5-2, right behind the 6-2 Buccaneers for first in the division. New Orleans is finally getting healthy, as they're expected to get Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) back. Chris Godwin (finger) is expected to return for Tampa Bay, who will also have Antonio Brown making his debut.

This game has fire-power abound, so let's take a look at my favourite prop bets for the SNF clash.

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Mike Evans -- OVER 4.5 Receptions (+110)

On the surface, this seems like a bad bet. When Godwin has played, Evans has averaged 3.0 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 12.8 yards. Not great. Add in the addition of Brown, and things get even more crowded. However, at +110, this OVER presents tremendous value. Evans will go head-to-head with Marshon Lattimore, who has been terrible this year. He grades out as the 91st/117 CB per Pro Football Focus. Evans and Lattimore are very familiar with each other, getting physical in recent meetings. If the Bucs are going to have success in this matchup, they need to target Lattimore and get Evans going. Janoris Jenkins is by far their best CB, and he will see a lot of Godwin. Brady is on record saying he needs to get Evans more involved, so expect him to go after the Saints' weaker CB.

Alvin Kamara -- OVER 5.5 Receptions (-105)

It's going to be interesting to see how the Saints' offence operates with Thomas back. In six games without him, New Orleans relied heavily on Kamara, who has averaged 20.8 touches per game. He's averaging 8.3 receptions per game from Weeks 2-to-8 but still had five catches in the one game Thomas appeared in. Drew Brees is not pushing the ball downfield at all, so even with Thomas back, I expect him to dump it off to Kamara a lot. Against a stout run defence, the  Saints will need to get the ball to Kamara in different ways. He had just 16 yards on 12 carries in their Week 1 match-up, so look for him to be more of a receiver in Week 9.

Michael Thomas -- OVER 5.5 Receptions (+100)

Speaking of Thomas, you can't forget that he holds the NFL's single-season receptions record (149). It's been a bizarre season for the fifth-year wide receiver, who got hurt, then was reportedly benched for disciplinary reasons and even heard his name on the trade market. Ultimately, the Saints never intended on dealing the star wideout and he's expected to be back in on Sunday night. Expect Brees to get him involved early and often. He was held under six receptions just twice last season, so this seems like a great bet at even money.

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