Fresh off of their bye week, the Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to get revenge versus the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs' only loss of the season came in Week 5 against Jon Gruden's Raiders. Since then, Las Vegas is 3-1 and sits second in the AFC West and firmly in the Wild Card picture. This game opened with Kansas City as a -7.0 favourite and has risen to -7.5 at Play.Spreads.ca. After combining for 72 points in Week 5, the Over/Under sits at 57.0, the highest for the Week 11 slate.
Las Vegas is in big trouble heading into Sunday, having played seven more players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, bringing their total to 11. With defensive end Clelin Ferrell and Lamarcus Joyner going on the list first, the high-risk close contacts that were added after essentially wipes out the Raiders' defence. They'll be without Ferrell, Arden Key, Maliek Collins, Jonathan Hankins, and Kendal Vickers on the defensive front. As well as slot CB Joyner, linebacker Cory Littleton and safety Jonathan Abram. That is a devastating list of players to be missing against one of the league's most potent and efficient offences.
Kansas City has a few question marks, including offensive tackle Mike Remmers, but they should get WR Sammy Watkins back for the first time since Week 5.
With so many key players missing on the defensive side of the ball, expect the Raiders to take a clock-controlling approach that will feature a lot of running the ball with Josh Jacobs. The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL in Rush DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and have given up the fourth-most rushing yards against (138.4) per game this season. Jacobs is coming off of a big game versus the Broncos, where he handled 21 carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
Even if they're able to keep Patrick Mahomes off of the field as much as possible, the Chiefs still put up 32 points against a healthy Raiders defence week 5. They should run wild on Sunday night.
The Pick: Chiefs -7.5
There are just too many absences for the Raiders to overcome. They have previously had difficulties getting to the quarterback, and now their entire defensive line is on the COVID-19 list. They were also already below-average defending the pass, and now two key figures in their secondary are out. These are not issues you can have against the Chiefs, particularly coming out of a bye week, where Andy Reid is 18-3 in his 22 years in the NFL.