Week 9 of the NFL season started with the Green Bay Packers destroying the San Francisco 24.5ers.
Because half of their team was hurt.
It continues Sunday with a much more intriguing matchup: Buffalo Bills versus Seattle Seahawks.
Both teams are coming off wins in Week 8 and are leading their respective divisions. Surprising for a November in Orchard Park, but the weather is expected to be perfect: a balmy afternoon with little wind.
The line opened at Seattle -1.5 but has since risen to -3.0 with an Over/Under of 55.0.
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The Bills are going to be without stud cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) while Seattle could be without their top three running backs—both Chris Carson (foot) and Travis Homer (knee) are questionable and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) has already been ruled out.
The Seahawks defence is historically bad. They're averaging 460.9 yards against per game right now. Some of that is game script related, but they're far from the Legion of Boom. Still, they're 6-1 and should be 7-0 because Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level. Josh Allen was in that MVP conversation early in the season, but his game has fallen off recently. He had a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his first four games which is now a 4-to-4 ratio in his last four games, with zero
passing touchdowns the last two weeks.
Russell Wilson – OVER 2.5 Passing TDs (+140)
Wilson's MVP calibre season carried on in Week 8 when he threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns against the 49ers. Wilson paces the league with 26 touchdown passes, averaging 3.7 per game. There's only been one game where he has thrown two touchdowns or less, so it seems like a safe bet to expect him to throw at least three in Buffalo.
The Bills pass defence is below average, ranking 22nd in PASS DVOA. This game is shaping up to be a shootout considering how horrendous Seattle's defence is. With their top three running backs all injured, Pete Carrol will undoubtedly put the game in Russell's hands. Josh Norman is out in the Bills secondary, so expect Tyler Lockett to feast while Tre'Davious White does his best on DK Metcalf.
Stefon Diggs – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Diggs currently sits seventh in the NFL in Receiving Yards per game, averaging 86.9 through eight weeks. Allen loves his new weapon, targeting him 9.9 times per game. Only five Week 9 WR have a higher Target/Route% than Diggs, and no one has a better matchup or game script. I expect Diggs to eclipse the 100-yard plateau for the fourth time this season.
The Bills are 6-2 and clearly the class of the AFC East but have had uninspiring performances against the Jets and Patriots the last two weeks. For Bills Mafia, there is a decent value on the Bills to win outright at (+140), but DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are going to prove to be too much to handle. The Seahawks have covered 59% of their games since 2018 and are 5-2 against the spread already this season, so I'm backing them at -3.0 and taking the over.
Seattle 34 – 27 Buffalo
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-- by Tommy Bits